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Breeders' Cup 2017

Sabel Browne deserves another chance for Motion

1/12/2014 1:24 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$30.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

Wednesday's 10th race (4:50pm ET) from Tampa Bay is a $24,000 Maiden Special Weight affair for fillies and mares traveling one mile on the turf course. 

#4 Sabel Browne (8-1) clipped heels and raced wide from post 9 in a better than appears 5th of 10 (placed 4th via DQ) vs. similar course/distance foes Dec. 13. Motion excels 2nd off the shelf and dam has tossed two turf winners so I'll give her another chance at a price.

#6 Red Trillium (15-1) took money and ran into a runaway winner in his Mountaineer bow, and the clear place finisher from that heat came back to score. His profitable new trainer Baker does solid work with this type of layoff runner and the Stronach Stables filly owns okay turf breeding. It is interesting that sharp local rider Gallardo hops off morning line favorite Callana in favor of this one.  

#7 Callana (9-5) finished 2nd as the beaten favorite in the same race Sabel Browne exits. Mott's overbet contender is versatile and attracts Centeno.  

#5 Moon Dreamer (2-1) returned from a 7+ month vacation and landed the place in a similar local two turn turf race Dec. 27. Serpa knows her now and quality trainer Delacour is 0-for-12 2nd off the shelf.

The Plays:

$12 to win #4

$2 Exacta 4/5-6-7 ($6)

$2 Exacta 5-6-7/2 ($6)

.50 cent Trifecta 4-6/4-5-6-7/4-5-6-7 ($6)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

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Older Comments about Sabel Browne deserves another chance for Motion...

not ALL the way chaos. 9/7/5 7 may be a chronic seconditis animal that is good to key on but not to ever bet straight. They (7 and 5) were overbet as well
Tampa Bay Downs puts out a very interesting self evaluation guide which they send out to sister tracks. I picked up one in the press box and learned that their main course is bakned 6% in the turns (34 feet difference from the outside to inside rail) while the back stretch is still a high industry standard 4% QUOTE:"Tracks like that with a very short stretch are banked to give unners the oportunity to build up momentum in the turn before spinning (did you hear that Phil Geogeff?) into the short stretch."
These are the races that attract so much sucker money: full of layoffs in a maiden contest of several proven non runners, many of whom are changing tracks. Who is to say which has picked up in its time off the course? Matter of fact this may not even go today as the 7th is already been taken off the turf today. IF, and that is a very big IF, the 7 Callana runs ANYWHERE close to previous lines, this one is over. The 5, Moon Dreamer has shown front end ability but not the closing kick that is usually required to run to the profile of a turfer, like the 12 COULD do or even the 2 here. Too many unknowns and those that stick out will be over bet. BAD betting race: chaos