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Breeders' Cup 2017

Sunland Oaks & Derby

3/22/2013 6:27 PM
Amount Bet:
Amount Cashed:


 The Oaks----

Hey y'all. Fun race here with top prospect #5 Midnight Lucky. Others are in it to win it, though. First thing one may notice here is the pace. Enhanced, it is. The #1 Unusual Way, #3 Majestic River, #5 Midnight Lucky, and #7 Shesatopattraction all have prefrences for the front end. I concluded, statistically the #5 Midnight Lucky is the earliest and fastest. As a filly , she is #4 on my Kentucky Oaks List, but the two furlong increase and the new surface, traveling, will be tough for her. The #3 Majestic River is class considering she lost by 3/4 lengths to my #1 on my Kentucky Oaks list, Emollient. I honestly think all three quality speed: #1, #3, #5 will be drained as the race heads near. #5 Midnight Lucky closed the last race at around :30 for the final 2.5 furlongs traveling 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita... She should have something left at the end, and I believe the #3 will be holding too. The #6 Countless Curlin is the one filly I thought had enough speed/stamina to compete..... The #2 Canticle is the other possible late comer. Overall, at the 1/8th's pole I honestly think the #6 Countless Curlin, a four length stakes winner, will come flying.... The #3 Majestic River is a good filly who'll hold, finally #5 Midnight Lucky at third. The #1 Unusual Way rounding the super. 6-3-5-1....


Unlike the Oaks, this race is moderate on the front end...... This race is filled with sustained pressers. Who will get an easy lead? Will a jockey(s) misjudge and go to fast? This race led me to who might steal the race up front, or possibly will a classy off the pace horse overcome moderate fractions to beat a decent field?

The #2 Abraham holds an impressive maiden win, which came directly after his superb debut, coming in second. He took a 6.5 to 9.0 furlong jump last time. And, despite being in the lead by 2 1/2, only won by 1 length. That was quite the jump. With maturity and improvement, I suspect him to get 9 furlongs easier this time. This one holds some quality speed, but he truly isn't a leader. I suspect him to go up and rate, which is why I like him. The #6 Dry Summer, appears to be the "win or not hit" type. As he has 4 out of 8, but no wins. I believe here HE might take a VERY slow pace, only with the #2 Abraham on his side. The #9 Show Some Magic has really nice energy distribution to keep up with the quality.... He might stay gamely by the 3/16th's pole. The #7 Governor Charlie also owns some decent numbers to keep up. The only off the pace horse here I like is the #4 Shake It Up. I believe he has the pure talent and class to overtake horses in the stretch. He shot home in 36 and 3 last out at 7 furlongs at Santa Anita. Horses he beat didn't come back to do much, but he is by Midnight Lute, and I like the chances. At the quarter pole, I think #2, #7, #9, #4 and #6 would be the remaining bids. Again, I don't see the #6 Dry Summer winning, but I'll include him since he is win or not hit. Assuming he doesn't come in.... I think the #4 Shakin it Up overtakes #2 Abraham and #7 Governor Charlie gets third. Show Some Magic to hold the super.....

Sunland Oaks Plays: $.10 Super: 1-3-5-6/1-3-5-6/1-2-3-5-6/ALL 

Sunland Derby Plays: $2 Exacta: 2-4/2-3-4-7-9 and #4 $8 Win, $16 Place. 

Daily Double Play: $2 Daily Double: 1-3-5-6/2-4-6-7 (Including the #6 b/c it is win or not hit)



Good Luck!!!!!!

Anaylis by Ed S 

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Older Comments about Sunland Oaks & Derby ...

Steam rolled + altitude = track record. Watch for WR next race by Mudflats
What's going on with the blazing fast Sunland track today, though? Race 8 also a record time. Have to take that into consideration. Nice win though.
Agreed. I hit the superfecta!!!! And I got part 1 of the daily double... Good start, I'm starting to get my mojo back.
jk, rafi.
Justv watched that w/a pal. Super impressive track record win by Midnight Lucky. I had $100 rafis on Unusual Way, but wow. Blazing fast !
Beholder vs. Midnight Lucky, this may be a GREAT SA Oaks
Let's go #6!
I can't believe the #5 odds.... If I weren't in a slump and didn't bet in advance, I would play the #6 across the board... What an overlay.
The $.10 Super is: 1-3-5-6/1-3-5-6/1-2-3-5-6/ALL..... My order is 6/5/3/1.... good luck!!!! Part 1 of my daily double!
the "Oaks":The event is named after The Oaks, an estate located to the east of Epsom which was leased to the 12th Earl of Derby in the 18th century. He and his guests devised the race during a party at the estate in 1778. It was first run in 1779, one year before the introduction of the Derby Stakes. The inaugural winner, Bridget, was owned by Lord Derby himself. Contenders are: 5 Midnight Lucky 1 Unusual Way 3 Majestic River 6 Countess Curlin
Good luck, gelded, appreciate your input. I was pretty confident in the Derby, a so-so confident in the Oaks, but since I'm in a slump my confidence level dropped accordingly. I'm gonna do what all my handicapping role models do: STICK WITH YOUR GUT. Hope I handicapped this one good, despite being in a major slump.
Should be Shakin It Up not Skakin It Up .
Abraham has already gotten the distance at 9 F with a win . I have a feeling he gets in the money but will be pressed if he goes on the lead and will get beat for the win .Both of Bafferts horses out of Midnight Lute have a chance with Governor Charlie winning at 1 mile already and Shakin It Up not traveling past 7F yet but looks like he may like the added ground. Mudflats could be a sleeper in here to make a nice Super . I'm not betting this race but like (2,4,7,8 ) for tri and superfecta wagers. I will pick Skakin It Up as my lukewarm pick for the win in here.
Thanks, GL to all, especially those with same/similar picks, lol. I forgot about liking Saint Prado. I'd give Abraham consideration, too.
Hey y'all. So, I have been in a big slump recently. I took a break from 3/16-3/20... I came back hit some winners, but I got beat bad yesterday and before. I lost two races yesterday, and lost about $75..... So, since I'm in a slump, after this race, I'm not betting for a while. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy March Madness. I'll start posting picks again when the Florida Derby comes.
Good Luck, Mary.
Mary: 4-2-7-9 for the Derby, for me.
I posted Sunland Derby picks at some other thread. Always they get buried. I'll check out the Oaks. Anyway, 4,7,1,5.
LOVED his closing rally at Monmouth, he swam through the slop like Michael Phelps
"General Something" sorry, I couldn't remember the name. The name is Governor Charlie, lol, pretty off. Lute was one dam good sprinter. We'll never know how he'd stretch out. But, for sure, one dam good horse.