Candy Boy can get there in Robert Lewis

2/7/2014 7:09 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$30.00
Amount Cashed:
$59.40

 

Saturday's 8th race (4:05pm PT) from Santa Anita Park is the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes for 3-year-olds traveling a amile and a sixteenth on the main track. 

#1 Candy Boy (2-1) is training steady for this and looks fit and ready to roll off the shelf under Gary Stevens. The Sadler trainee ran a winning race from off the pace in the G1 CashCall Futurity but hooked 2yo champ Shared Belief. He has a nice juvenile route foundation and a rising numbers pattern.

Play Saturday’s Santa Anita Park games at DerbyWars.com.   

#3 Midnight Hawk (9-5) is 2-for-2 and an obvious pace player for Baffert. The G3 Sham hero should go at least this far and will probably discourage the other early runners under Mike Smith.  

#5 Cool Samurai (6-1) earned the best late number in a rallying maiden win at a flat mile here last time. He needs pace help.   

#7 Chitu (7-2) is bred for speed on top and stamina on bottom. The other Baffert is 2-for-2. 

#4 Home Run Kitten (12-1) swings for the fences. He exits a nice downhill graduation run and is bred to route on turf. He is an interesting stalker if he handles dirt. 

#2 Diamond Bachelor (6-1) never threatened in the G1 BC Juvenile, his first try on dirt. He is a turf miler until proven otherwise. 

#6 El Nino Terrible (12-1) owns the lowest numbers.

The Plays:

$18 to win #1

$2 Trifecta 1-3/1-3-4-7/5 ($12)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

For daily insight on Santa Anita Park's Pick 6 races, check out Pick 6blog. com for free selections and tickets.   
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Older Comments about Candy Boy can get there in Robert Lewis ...

Impressive late move
Such a big guy and Gary Stevens is just great.
Thanks, rafirox. I'll take that fair $6.60 price as well.
2 in a row, Jarrod! Good call!
Shared Belief is "back to track" !! So here is the gist of what Hollendorfer had to say this morning. The horse had a small abscess on his heel. They tried to keep him in training but sand kept getting into the abscess causing irritation and not allowing it to heal properly. He was given some time off and a little crack developed which according to Jerry could be "easily patched". A few days ago the crack was patched and he was taken back to the track. He said that patching the crack "isn't anything out of the ordinary for the guys around here, we do it every day". Not sure about the next prep. But he says he is a light framed horse and he "didn't blow up... so it won't be hard to get him back to the point where we didn't train him"... Sounds like good news !!
the double in r lewis stake has the low takeout pool AWESOME
Hey everybody just got back from turfway park making my bets.The robert lewis stake has a LOW Takeout Pool never seen this before for 1 race. If the bachelor wins it WAS MEANT TO BE
First when you are looking for a good spot to invest, you need to find a contest that is going to disperse the money in the pool to a lot of outright non-contenders. It is best to find fields of 10 or more so that the money is diverted into more niches so that the money on the real logical contenders gets boosted by those monies being spread over a wider range. It is particularly good to find a field with a name horse (call them publicity horses touted by some ill-informed newspaper writing who usually follows baseball) that you can totally dismiss for the win. That allows upwards of 30% of the pool to be freed up for you choice to be refunded to you. Always think about HOW much of the betting pool you are IN as compared with how much is diverted to other entries in the race. If the total amount outstanding can creep to 30% or more, you have a potentially good wager.
At old Bowie one winter's day long before the board listed potential exacta payoff's TWO horses had Pro in their name. Niether was favored , but somehow they ran first and second at odds BOTH above 10/1. When the board lit up listing the long prices, the $2 exacta came out at $35 and their was almost a riot. THe crowd thinking in group think ALL thought they should bet the "hunch" of the two "pros" together, and forgetting that the straight and exotic pools were different, did not realize the long odds in one were not long in the other pool.
Alright Lightyear, nice to see someone, in the tradition of Olympic Ski Jumping, getting way out over their skis__Good Luck with your DD >> t_v, before scratches, nice call on Candy Boy :D
awesome analogy tvic. Hey everybody i have an awesome bet in the robert lewis stake today. this is what i would call a HUNCHBET. there are 2 "diamond" horses in back to back races. Take a 10 DD 2-8 in the derby prep.2-diamond bachelor@8-diamonds diplomat. you will recieve a nice ROI like vic says Good Luck everyone
Good race....poor profit potential. Contenders...#7, 3, 1, 2. Bob Baffert virtually owns these big races and will not be denied once again. #3 Midnight Hawk is simply too fast for this bunch. Undefeated with push button speed and hall of fame jockey set the stage for another win. Will be even money favorite. Just watch and enjoy!!!
Contenders: 3 Midnight Hawk 1 Candy Boy 2 Diamond Bachelor 7 Chitu. If Candy Boy is 6/5 I would be surprised. Backing that short a price, you might as well buy a hot dog as it is a better, far better, investment........BUT if the other odds are high enough in response, a wager MIGHT evolve..................but I doubt it FLAT bets are just not logical over time. The GREATER advantage over the field (overlay) and the greater the percentage of the pool that is not covered should dictate the AMOUNT that you risk. The old Kelly criterion encapsulated to a "T." ANYTIME you consider a wager, evaluate how many hits and misses it will take to stay in the black over time. Betting on this race will not invite too long a positive ROI