Heat Trap and Velvet Mesquite are a nice hedge G2 Monrovia

1/4/2015 12:41 AM
Author:

 

 

Hey y'all! Back with another Play of the Day! This time, we're taking a look at the G2 Monrovia, which is for older fillies and mares going on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita.  

Overview on picks:

I think this race involves two key horses, #4 Heat Trap (4-1) and #12 Velvet Mesquite (7-2). #4 Heat Trap is a consistent filly. In five career starts at Santa Anita, she has never been out of the money. On the downhill, she has also never been out of the money, in four career starts. She is 9 for 11 in the money in her career. One was on synthetics, while the other was going a mile. She adores this trip and is a very viable contender with what should be solid odds. #12 Velvet Mesquite (7-2)  She is 5 for 6 going this trip, but just 4:0-2-0 in any other trip. She won a stakes two back and placed in her last stakes effort. She has a pace advantage in this race, as she appears to have little competition up front, as well as a hall of fame jockey in Mike Smith in the reins. 

Secondary horses (in order of post position):

#5 Gender Agenda (5-1) is well tested and a pretty consistent competitor. This honest racehorse is an include in any exotic play.

#7 Wishing Gate (6-1) has very solid pace figures which include high early speed or late closing speed. This type of flexibility is useful for the hill and I find the cutback to be in her favor. Could be an interesting play.

#8 Biorhythm (9-2) has shown to be a very capable turf sprinter over her past performances. She is must include in exotics.

 For reference, speed figures (using my personal speed figures):

Sorry guys, I don't make speed figures for the downhill turf! Too crazy! But, the speed figures seem to be very equal and competitive with no stand out.

Pace Projection and How Horses Figure to React:

(Bold on number = top pick, italic on number = secondary pick, bold on projection = impact on pace, italic on projection = difficult pace scenario, underline = relative "wildcard") 

#1 -- figures to be stalking the pace. 

#2 -- figures to be on the pace. 

#3 -- figures to be on/near the pace    

#4 -- figures to sit off and make a nice closing kick.

#5 -- is pretty flexible, can either stalk or go towards the pace. 

#6 -- figures to be near the pace.

#7 -- flexible at longer distances, has sprinting speed in some races, but figures to close.

#8 -- figures to be on/near the pace.

#9 -- figures to be further back than previous. Has not shown sprinting speed.

#10 -- figures to come from out of it.

#11 -- figures to be in a stalk/close position.

#12 -- figures to be on the lead.    

Overall Pace Picture: There seems to be a decent amount of speed, nothing special, but decent. This course has a slight speed bias but I think that overall this pace scenario is winnable for any horse. 

Possible/Probable bets:

Note: Obviously, final decisions will be based on the final odds of the horses. This is just playing around with ideas. Some might be bet, some might not be. Some might go hand in hand (bet both or none), and some are one or the other. Straight bets are not guaranteed as odds might dramatically drop or another might rise, etc.

HEDGE ON #4 Heat Trap (4-1) and #12 Velvet Mesquite (7-2) (WP)

Overall budget:

The bet amount should be between $100 and $200. 

Hope you enjoyed and hopefully this can bring you home a winning ticket! Good luck!

 

~Big E.  

  

 

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Older Comments about Heat Trap and Velvet Mesquite are a nice hedge G2 Monrovia...

Well, the picks took home 2nd and 3rd. I never bet show anymore after looking at the calculated ROI, so the W/PP hedge (as posted) was $120 overall. Luckily, the #4 brought home a solid $5.60 to place, which in place got me $112 on a $40 place bet. Overall, a $120 bet and I brought back $112, so a loss of $8. I can live with that. So far through two races, we're plus $128 (last time we won $136). I'm not doing one for tomorrow since I have stuff to do but I'll try to get one for Tuesday. Hope all y'all have a good one.
X Box 5-4, half 5-12, tri 4-5/7-8-12/4-5
Why I included the 1, who I was not familiar with: she should keep up and has shown some good late pace, and that one recent out-of-the money finish was against open company, big field, shorter distance.
before scratches: 12 Velvet Mesquite 11 Judy In Disguise (GB) 1 Shrinking Violet 4 Heat Trap 1 10 11 primes and then UNDER 2 4 7 in tri but then the odds and late changes will alter evaluations.
I am really keying Sky Treasure here. Huge (hopefully) odds, best speed figures, the only question is going downhill. Heat trap will be there, and so should Velvet Mesquite. Shrinking Violet is an interesting play too. Mary, that was an AWFUL ride for Dynamic Sky yesterday! Should've at least been 3rd or better, I have no idea what Nakatani was doing there.
  • Mary Z. · Maybe he thought there would be a magic opening at the rail. My real thoughts would be censored. · 2017 days ago
Thanks, rafi, but I hadn't really "picked" yet. 12,11,1,10, and 4, so all of the 1s and 4. 12 has the best position of the early speedies.
Hey Derek! Hope you're doing well. If I lose, hope you get the win. Did you bet my pick Bluegrass Singer yesterday? The guy was big time :). Our guy Carlos loved him :). Good luck jinlie and mary.
Another wide open downhill turf race at SA. But I'm sticking with longshot Shrinking Violet and Gender Agenda.
The only thing possibly wrong with the 12 is you-know-who. Her odds will drop. People can see her hill record. Not only is he famous for losing on heavy favorites, but she doesn't really win by much, not that she has to. Winning is fine. 11, if she's back, she has run on the hill with Pontchatrain, fcs. The 10. Just sayin' somebody owes somebody else a much better ride than he gave Dynamic Sky. 5 and 4 after those, but spread as much as you can for fourth. Some back class ones in here, such as Wishing Gate.