Toby ready to turn corner in Pimlico Special

5/16/2012 12:40 PM
Author:
Amount Bet:
$30.00
Amount Cashed:
$0.00

 

Friday's 12th race (5:51pm ET) from Pimlico is the G3 Pimlico Special for 3-year-olds and up traveling nine and one-half furlongs on the main track. 

#1 Toby's Corner (6-1) has fired Trifecta shots in all eight lifetime starts. Graham Motion's consistent colt should save all of the ground under regular pilot Castro before launching his rally from midpack. He was 3.5 lengths behind Mission Impazible in the G2 New Orleans last time and that was his first route race since April 2011. 

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#2 Endorsement (8-1) has always been a favorite of mine. He was my top pick in the 2010 Sunland Derby and went to the sidelines for quite some time after the event. The fragile 5yo resurfaced at Gulfstream this winter and ran 1-2 in all three Florida starts. He exits a sharp win in the G3 Texas Mile and his numbers are on the rise. He reunites with Martin Garcia, who was the pilot in his long ago maiden win at Oaklawn.

#5 Nehro (8-1) failed to seriously threaten in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap but he did not get much pace help that day. Last year's Kentucky Derby runner-up looked good in his Feb 25 Fair Grounds return and is capable of threatening these with the right race shape. 

#6 Mission Impazible (7-2) is worth trying to beat on top because he is only 3-for-17 lifetime and does some of his best work at Fair Grounds. I'll use the tactical type in exotics. 

#8 Alternation (4-1) shoots for a four-bagger. He got away with soft splits at Oaklawn last time but is not a need to lead type. I want to see him run the same race under new pace circumstances at a different venue.  

#3 Hymn Book (4-1) moves up on wet footing but it looks like a fast track on Friday. Today's added distance doesn't hurt and he is usually thereabouts.

#7 Yawanna Twist (12-1) outran his odds in the aforementioned Oaklawn 'Cap and I figured he was good for share that day due to the slow early/fast late race shape. The tactical threat finished 4th, beaten two lengths, at this course/distance in the 2010 Preakness.

#4 Cherokee Artist (15-1) exits a romping local Optional Claiming win but the hard knocking 7yo horse might have a hard time duplicating that effort against this salty crew.

#9 Eighttofasttocatch (15-1) has a nose for the wire (6 for last 15) and figures in the hunt from the outset. He has the numbers to compete here but seems a cut below this group.

The Plays:

$12 to win #1

.50 cent Trifecta 1-2-5/1-2-5/1-2-5-6/1-2-3-5-6-8 ($18)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

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