Dayatthespa might attempt a theft in QEII

10/12/2012 1:46 PM
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Saturday's 9th race from Keeneland is the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup for 3-year-old fillies traveling a mile and an eighth on the turf course.

KEE 9 (G1 QEII Challenge Cup, 9T) #8 DAYATTHESPA (3-1) is 4-for-4 this year for sharp turf trainer Chad Brown. My early-pressing top figures all over expected tepid fractions and she won a local G3 in the spring. She is 1-for-1 at this distance and was flattered when the place finisher from her last came back to score.
#4 Centre Court (7-2) is fresh and dangerous versatile threat under Leparoux. She has the most experience at this trip and shows 2 wins and a 2nd from those three starts. She has been part of the Exacta in all six turf outings.  
$24 to win #8 
$8 Exacta Box 4-8 ($16)
analysis by Jarrod Horak 
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Older Comments about Dayatthespa might attempt a theft in QEII...

Thanks everyone. @Capper. I had the exacta in the Fantasy League.
She was most impressive!
Congrats Jarrod, you nailed it!
Nice job of handicapping .
Nice piece of handicapping, Jarrod! Did you have the exacta box in our fantasy league or just the win on Dayatthespa?
Thanks, Mary Z and cognibene. It is always nice when it turns out the way you analyzed it.
Congratulations stole it with the hot trainer/jockey combination...nice call!!!
You called it, md. She stole that nicely.
Sustained is the way 90% of turf contests run....Many others run later than that!
Trainer intent: EASY, the want to win.
Good luck, cognibene. You've got the other Chad Brown.
I make the contenders as the #5, 7, 8. Top two become the #7 and #8. Tough to try and separate but based on angles and class #7 Samitar comes on top. Horse has the best connections, 2nd time lasix, improving pattern and dropping out of G1 company. I'll bet #7 to win and box exactas with the #5, 7 and 8. Good luck!!!
Contenders: 8 Dayatthespa A+ 5 Stephanie's Kitten A 7 Samitar (GB) B- , the grades behind them based ONLY on Morning line, not the real odds they may go off at, are a measure of their attractiveness as a wager....beware any Irish breds (particularly here on the lead) although this is a tad too short for them. 2 and 7 suggest as being the pace setters.
I was interested in Tannery, but I decided the pace just might not be to her liking. As mdracing said, VERY VERY wide open race.
Sustained runners have been known to win slow early/fast late races, especially on turf. In a competitive race like this I went for the horses with a tactical edge, but this is an evenly matched group and all 8 entrants seem to have some sort of shot. I picked Tannery last time and Somali Lemonade is a Graded winner over the Keeneland weeds.
If that stealing plan doesn't work out, and I predict the winner will come from far off the pace, Somali Lemonade should be back with the Irish bred, Tannery until the stretch; those two 1-2, then Centre Court and Samitar. I like Stephanie's Kitten, but worry about the bit of time off.
Thanks, rafirox. Good luck to you as well.
Good luck Jarrod. My bet DayattheSpa 20 dollars WP. And Better Lucky 10 dollars to place. Good luck to you and your picks, both of us I guess. The pace should be crawling, Spa should steal it. And the rest of the main competitors will have to close to a slow pace. Better Lucky is good looking, but Spa has an easier pace scenario. Plus, likes of underated Chad Brown AND great turf jock, Castellano. I see your logic completely. :)