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Breeders' Cup 2017

Violence is NOT unbeatable in FOY

2/22/2013 10:14 AM
Amount Bet:
Amount Cashed:


Saturday's 11th race (5:35pm EST) at Gulfstream Park is the $400k G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles. A field of 11 is scheduled to go postward, but trainer Mark Casse plans on scratching #9 - Sky Captain in favor of an easier spot next weekend, but mainly due to the bad Post Position the son of Sky Mesa drew in the FOY.  

The Morning Line prohibitive 9-5 favorite is #3 - Violence (9-5) who is 3 for 3 lifetime and makes his much anticipated 3 y.o. debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. On paper his main rivals are #10 - Falling Sky (6-1) who comes in after winning the G3 Sam F. Davis @ Tampa Downs and #4 - Majestic Hussar (6-1) who ruined Palace Malice's 3 y.o. debut in the slop last out.

HOW I SEE IT: GP 8.5f races have been very kind to early speed types (54% in the past week; 42% for the meet). This bodes well for Majestc Hussar, Falling Sky, #5 - Elmutahid (20-1) and #8 - Speak Logistics (12-1). This leaves #1 - Orb (12-1) and Violence to take up the chase from mid-pack. Now do you really think that TAP has Violence cranked-up for this one?! I think not!

The Play: $2 Tri Part-Wheel 4, 5, 8 w/ 3 w/ 1, 4, 5, 8, 9

That's Majestic Hussar, Elmutahid and Speak Logistics w/ Violence w/ Orb, Majestic Hussar, Elmutahid, Speak Logistics and He's Had Enough ($24)  

Selections for all 9 races on the Laurel Park on Saturday (Feb. 23rd) card, including a BEST BET and LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day, see Maryland's Own GQ.

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Older Comments about Violence is NOT unbeatable in FOY...

Leaving out the Electric Horseman at double digit odds because he can't win from the extreme outside isn't good.
updated contenders:3 Violence 4 Majestic Hussar 1 Orb 6 Cerro (IRE)
"Cranked up' is a pipe dream thought up AFTER the fact that someone mistakenly AND RETROSPECTIVELY making up a story to fit their subjective evaluation of things....Randomness is alive and well, particularly at the races!
no colt is unbeatable but that one comes out on top in contender selection, now ODDS are a very different thing: 3 Violence 10 Falling Sky 4 Majestic Hussar 6 Cerro (IRE) 8 9 or 11 suggest the lead, BUT it is possible that Violence could be there but realistically, on that track, maybe not....depends on how much it dried out.
Violence has been top on my Derby Watch list for a long time and has done nothing to lead me to believe he won't win today... His Cashcall Futurity was an outstanding race, shipping across country, beating many notable Derby contenders at today's race distance.
I agree with your assessment. I like Falling Sky, but I am concerned about his poor PP draw. If he were a closer or stalker type, his PP wouldn't be a problem.
I'm not sure about this field, but I just watched Violence's past races for the first time today and I really don't get all the hype. I mean, he's very classy for sure. But he hasn't really done anything to blow horses away that he should be the rising Derby favorite that he has become. Maybe (hopefully) today will prove me wrong.
"tonyzag", thanks for your comment but there's no conspiracy theory here. I never claim to have proof or attempt to mislead, it's just my opinion, to give readers like yourself something to think about. You can consider it or not, that's your right... which I respect. I am confident that Violence WILL NOT BE ON THE LEAD into the first turn, That's not his style. If he's as good as everyone believes he is, then JJ will put in just behind the early speed, and pounce on them in the stretch. As far as Majestic Hussar NOT being able to carry his speed the distance... just look at his sire line (A.P. Indy and then Distorted Humor on the bottom).
I would have to disagree with you Maryland my Maryland. I think you do this week in and week out to mislead horse racing fans. What makes you think, what proof do you have that he's not "cranked up" what leads you to imagine he is not? Has he missed a workout? No he has had one every 8 days with the last being a bullet work 5f in 1:00 and a tick, not 1:01, but 1:00 and a tick! You're going to say that he doesn't have front foot speed? Who in that bunch will beat him out the gate and get the mile and a sixteenth? He's got the leading rider of the meet piloting him and JJ knows he's starting on a turn and must get him out for position for the short first turn. Majestic Hussar has never gone 1-1/16 mile what makes you think he can carry his speed the distance?