International Star still underated in Risen Star

2/20/2015 12:00 PM
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The G2 Risen Star Stakes follows the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes as another Kentucky Derby 50 pointer to the winner which creates a “win and you’re in” opportunity for the horse that can take down the Risen Star.  It is a very competitive field of 11 three year-olds and, unlike most Kentucky Derby Preps, it is an interesting betting affair to boot.

 

The headliner in here is #10 International Star, a colt that has struggled to get respect and may still offer value in this field.  Looked super in coming off the break to win the LeComte Stakes handily.  This will be the Super Screener top choice as another move forward is projected today and he possesses that ideal “tactical” energy distribution profile which will enable him to prosper under various pace conditions.  He is currently ranked 26th on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.

 

Pace here projects to be modest with low pressure.  #2 Tiznow RJ, will benefit from the modest pace and should move forward off that third place finish in the LeComte Stakes.  The California shipper, #1 St. Joe Bay and #4 J S Bach should also find pace conditions favorable to their early energy distribution profiles.

 

Second choice to #10 International Star will be the horse that finished just behind him in the LeComte, #6 War Story.  That one had a pretty tough trip in that affair and projects to move solidly forward today.

 

The Super Screener will favor horses with balance across their BRIS 1st Call, 2nd Call and Late Pace categories that are presser or off-the-pace types that have shown a previous affinity for the racing surface.  California shippers typically do well on this course and will be given additional consideration.  Horses coming off a second or third start off a lay off move up at this point in the Derby preps and have an increasing advantage over horses making their first start off a vacation.

 

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

 

WIN CONTENDERS

 

#10 International Star 9-2

#6 War Story 5-1

 

BOARD HITTERS

 

#2 Tiznow R J

#1 St. Joe Bay 12-1

#3 Bluff 12-1
#4 J S Bach 5-1

#5 Imperia 7-2

 

The Wagering Considerations:

 

$.50 Superfecta 10 with 1,2,3,4,5,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6 with ALL

 

$1 Trifecta 6,10 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,10 with ALL

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Older Comments about International Star still underated in Risen Star...

NO dominant earlies (might be 1 and 2) here but lots of late movers 4 5 2 6. Contenders: 10 International Star 5 Imperia 2 Tiznow R J 4 J S Bach LONG LONG LONG shot is the 8 and may help to put into an exotic: probably and "in and outer" however.
after the scratch 5 Imperia 10 International Star 2 Tiznow R J 6 War Story 2 1 out early and then 5 6 10 come later
LONG LONG shot...would have to be at 15/1 to be considered
2,3,5,7

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