Race of the Week 2017

Central Banker the value play in Delta Jackpot

11/16/2012 12:24 PM
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Saturday's 7th race (4:15pm CT) from Delta Downs is the Grade III Delta Jackpot for 2-year-olds traveling a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. 

#3 Central Banker (6-1) could end up following the Fair Grounds Road to the Roses path if everything goes well here. The $200k Keeneland sales grad exceeded the winning par for this in a stalk/pounce 6.5f Optional Claming win under the Twin Spires Oct 28. He landed the place in the grassy Kentucky Downs Juvenile before that and beat subsequent BC Juvenile Sprint hero Hightail in his turf sprint graduation run at the Spa. Stall is 3-for-6 here and the son of Speightstown shows a solid 4f move at Fair Grounds for this.  

Play Saturday's $1k games at DerbyWars.com.  

#1 Bern Identity (7-2) looked good winning the local prep for this and he earned a respectable Final Time Rating that day. This bullring oval can be tricky to handle so he gets bonus points for a local victory. A ground saving tactical trip is anticipated. 

#9 Goldencents (5-2) earned a triple digit number in his facile synthetic sprint debut and shipped across country and held the place in the G1 Champagne second time out. He figures to play catch me if you can and might prove an elusive target. Krigger and O'Neill are 0-for-15 together recently. 

#7 Know More (4-1) won his debut in the G2 Best Pal and followed that up with a rallying place finish in the G1 Del Mar Futurity, both synthetic sprints. He stretched out, switched to dirt, and held the place in the G1 FrontRunner, and he was hung out to dry from post 13 in the BC Juvenile Turf two weeks ago. He has the dynamic Derby trio of Gutierrez, O'Neill, and Reddam in his corner, and I have no idea what we will get from him in this spot. 

#5 Hightail (9-2) wheels back in two weeks and is worth trying to beat on the win end. He toppled four rivals while earning his diploma in his ninth career start in the BC Juvenile Sprint. He traveled from Kentucky to California, back to Kentucky, and now ships to Louisiana and stretches out over a tricky oval at underlaid odds.

The Plays:

$20 to win #3

$4 Exacta 3/1-9 ($8)

$3 Exacta 1-9/3 ($6)

.50 cent Trifecta 1-7-9/1-4-5-7-9/3 ($6)

analysis by Jarrod Horak

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Older Comments about Central Banker the value play in Delta Jackpot...

I see. Thanks for your time.
1 9 7 5 but would be very careful about what win odds I would take. Already down to 2/1 on my service with 12 minutes to go.
TV, take your pick for #7. I've got (in order) 1-7-9/5
1 5 go out front with 3 6 coming later
6th 3 5 6 look to be the wager possibilities straight
Poor Pants On Fire.
splitzacta is such a common pattern that I often use it as a trifecta structure.
my show horse is the 5
for 1st and 2nd that is, lol
TV, we have the same exact picks!
quote: 5th 7 2 3 4 so lets see how the track is playing 2, 5,3 splitzacta so it is playing fair so far
5th 7 2 3 4 so lets see how the track is playing
Slow tracks like Keeneland, Laurel. Delta and a few others AUGMENT the latter running styles while Anita, inner Aqu, old Keeneland, Pimlico, Fort Erie and most bull rings, favor speed balls.
three year olds that can't get the Derby distance had a distinct patter or lowered total energy and increased % median as the distances increase from 8 to 8.5 to 9 f.
last races UP to Derby : energy distributiion % median 65.5,66,66.2,66.2,66.5,66.6 VERy slight increase in % median as distance increased, TYPICAL with a three year old Tracks were haw, Aqu, Lrl, Aqu, Lrl, CNL This nag was running at at track, Laurel, that increases his chances of winning with that style too.
someone finally recognized Sweetnorthernsaints limitations and tried him, rather unsuccessfully, as a miler.....Mismanaged animal. You take what the runner gives you and place him accordingly. When are trainers going to learn that?
For what its worth War Emblem ran his last Derby prep, on the lead and LATE. That performance catpulted him into a distinct wager in the k Derby. Hawthorne for the other..he deluded the crow with another close paced, though late performance in the 66.5% range....Since hte Derby demands sustained/pressers in the range of 67.2 to 67.9. he was a toss.
Sweetnrothernsaint, one of the very FIRST K Derby deletions in his class, ran just about all his races with a percent medain in the midd 66 range: a LATE running horse. I will look up the old charts later to find out where I got that idea, but that one was a very easy throw out based upon a consistent record, which I will reproduce once I locate that file.
Sweetnorthernsaint was neither a deep-closer, nor did he prep at Fair Grounds. The misinformation you spew on a daily basis is truly mind-boggling.
This track should play like SA did on BC day. Fast with a front end bias with them coming out of the chute.tri, 1/9 wt 1/9 wt 3/4/5/6/7 X5- tri, 1/7/9/ box X5 - tri, 1/wt7/9 wt 7/9 X10 total $100. If the odds aren't there this won't go in. I need to see a $6 ex for a $1 play on 1/9 box or the tri won't pay enough. In that case I just play the 1/7/9 tri box as the 7 can be there but it's hard to see Bern Identity worse than 2nd. GL all