Track Trends: Reasonable win rate carries into spring transition

Track Trends: Reasonable win rate carries into spring transition
Photo: Candice Chavez/Eclipse Sportswire

Less than two weeks away from the 2022 Kentucky Derby, favorite win rate continued to be reasonable. For the week of April 18-24, favorites won 37.1 percent of the time. 549 total races were run, compared with the prior week’s 495, though average field size decreased slightly.  Horseshoe Indianapolis opened under a new name and saw chalk prevail 39 percent of the time over 18 races run. Long-shot winners helped bolster the average win payout of $17.78. Live racing continues Tuesday with the first route race of the spring meet. Horseplayers looking for more information on this Indiana track can check out Horse Racing Nation’s Secrets to Win at Horseshoe Indianapolis e-book. Only three days remain in the Keeneland spring meet, where favorites were more reliable on the turf last week than the previous one. In 17 races contested on grass, the public was victorious 41 percent. But on the main track, favorites were less likely to cross the wire first, striking at 34 percent. No one had all six in the Pick 6 sequence on Sunday, and a carryover of $49,486.50 awaits on Wednesday. Handicappers Ed DeRosa and Sara Elbadwi offer their analysis on those races here

Racing on the New York circuit shifts to Belmont Park on Thursday. Aqueduct ended the spring meet with favorites most successful over the inner turf course at 43 percent. The main track was more difficult for bettors to read effectively, with the favorite strike rate down to 25 percent. The outer turf course continued its trend of upsets, with favorites winning 22 percent of the time there.  Churchill Downs opens this Saturday and unveils a new turf course. More information on each of this year’s Kentucky Derby can be found on the Horse Racing Nation YouTube playlist with contender and prep race analysis.

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