Track Trends: Can favorites be trusted at Canterbury?

Track Trends: Can favorites be trusted at Canterbury?
Photo: Coady Photography
On Wednesday, June 22, Canterbury will host six stakes races worth more than $600,000 in combined purse money. Bettors looking to play against the chalk are likely to have more success on the main track than the turf course, according to data from the week of June 13-June 19.

Turf favorites won at 46.2 percent over 13 races on the Canterbury lawn. The average field size of 7.9 provided horseplayers with more options in each race, and is a theme that continues on the Wednesday card. Full fields are scheduled for each stakes race. Bettors looking to play the all-turf stakes Pick 5 (with just 10 percent takeout) can see how Canterbury Park analyst Angela Hermann is approaching the sequence on the Horse Racing Nation YouTube channel.

On the main track, favorites had less success. Over 21 contested races, favorites won only 23.8 percent of the time. Average field size was 6.0, even smaller than the overall average across the country for the week which was 6.9. Horse Racing Nation Pro Reports are available for every track, every day, and can assist horseplayers looking to wager on Canterbury Park this week.

Less total races were run last week, partially due to high temperatures and heat index across parts of the Midwest. A total of 752 races were contested in comparison to the prior week’s 833. Winning favorites percentage increased to 42.0 percent from a win rate of 38.8 percent the week ended June 12.
Turf racing was once again the place for larger fields and better value. Both Belmont turf courses proved challenging for bettors to figure out, as the chalk won 18.2 percent of the time on both the inner and the Widener. The average $2 win wager payoff on the widener turf course was $26.82 and on the inner the average payoff was $20.91.

Favorites were vulnerable on the Belmont main track as well, contributing to both a double Pick 6 carryover and a Pick 5 carryover last week. With 16 races contested, chalk won 31.3 percent of the time. 

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