Thursday's Bailout Special: No need to get 'cute' at Keeneland

October 09, 2019 06:17pm
During Keeneland’s Spring Meet, I introduced my “Bailout Special” which, simply, is a handicapping piece that highlights which horse I think will win each card’s finale.
Had a bad day at the track? Use the “Bailout Special” to get some of that money back. Have a good day at the track and want to finish strong? There’s the “Bailout Special.” Maybe you’re looking for a bold single to end a Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence. Use the “Bailout Special.” The horse I land on won’t always be the horse with the best perceived value. Neither will it be the horse I think “could win if the pace scenario sets up perfectly.” My selection will be the horse that I think has the absolute best chance to win the race regardless of projected odds. Were some of my winners (I went 7-for-16 in the Spring Meet) the prohibitive favorite? Yes. Were some of the winners so-called easy selections? Yes. But the goal is to pick the winner of the last race of the day at Keeneland every day they run. I’ll have some horses scratch, and if the weather is bad and the finale comes off the turf, there may not be a pick to play. For the first weekend of this fall meet my selections finished second, second and first from Thursday through Sunday. On opening day, I actually chose an also-eligible that made it into the race; my other choice won it. Here's Thursday's play: Race 10 $30,000 maiden claiming fillies and mares 3-years old and up 7 furlongs on dirt; post time 6:07 p.m. ET As stated above, sometimes the top choice is an easy one. I feel the morning line is quite off on Cairo Cutie (post 3), who will most likely be an odds-on favorite in the finale on Thursday at Keeneland. There’s no way she goes off near 3-1. While it’s always good to be cautious when horses drop in class as precipitously as this one is here, if she is anywhere close to being sound and fit, she wins this race going away. Cairo Cutie is running second off a layoff, and a return to her previous speed figures makes her tough to beat in this spot for trainer Todd Pletcher. This is a definite “single” in multi-race bets. For those wishing to place vertical bets, the race for the final spot in exactas and second and third spots for trifectas would be It’s a Ford (post 9) and Pastoral (post 5).

 

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