Swale in 1984 and Charismatic in 1999. One thing these two horses have in common is they were the only Kentucky Derby winners who ever came out of the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
Now a Grade 3, 1 1/16-mile test worth $400,000, the race began in the fall of 1936 and was resurrected as the Calumet Purse in the spring of 1973 after a 30-year absence. All the while it has existed in the shadow of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), especially now that it is only three weeks before the big event May 6.
Click here for Keeneland entries and results.
In the last decade, the Lexington has had the added cachet of being a last chance to qualify for the Derby. If Disarm were to finish in the top three of Saturday’s renewal, he would have the points necessary to get to Churchill Downs.
If that were to happen, Disarm would be only the fifth Lexington finisher in the last 16 runnings to make it to America’s biggest race. These were the horses who made it since 2000:
| Year | Horse | Quirin | Lex. | Ky. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tawny Port | P 2 | 1st | 7th |
| 2021 | ||||
| 2020 | - no Lexington - | |||
| 2019 | ||||
| 2018 | My Boy Jack | S 0 | 1st | 5th |
| 2017 | ||||
| 2016 | ||||
| 2015 | ||||
| 2014 | ||||
| 2013 | ||||
| 2012 | ||||
| 2011 | Derby Kitten | P 2 | 1st | 13th |
| 2010 | ||||
| 2009 | Advice | S 0 | 1st | 13th |
| 2008 | ||||
| 2007 | ||||
| 2006 | Showing Up | E/P 5 | 1st | 6th |
| 2005 | Coin Silver | E/P 5 | 1st | 12th |
| Sort It Out | P 2 | 2nd | 17th | |
| Going Wild | E 7 | 5th | 18th | |
| 2004 | Song of the Sword | P 3 | 3rd | 11th |
| Quintons Gold Rush | E/P 7 | 1st | DNF | |
| 2003 | Eye of the Tiger | P 6 | 2nd | 5th |
| Domestic Dispute | P 3 | 3rd | 10th | |
| Scrimshaw | E/P 7 | 1st | 11th | |
| 2002 | Proud Citizen | E 7 | 1st | 2nd |
| 2001 | Keats | E 5 | 1st | 16th |
| 2000 | Commendable | E/P 4 | 4th | 17th |
| E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
| E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
| P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
| S - Sustainer (closer) |
The sample is not large, but the Quirin Speed Points provided by Brisnet.com shown above indicate a recent trend of success for Lexington closers.
A bigger slice of evidence comes from the last 17 runnings of the race. Twelve of the winners since 2005 came from at least 3 3/4 lengths behind, including the last five.
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tawny Port | 5 - 2 1/2 | 8 - 3 3/4 | 5 - 2 1/4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 5-1 |
| 2021 | King Fury | 8 - 10 1/2 | 7 - 9 1/2 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 18-1 |
| 2020 | - no race - | ||||||
| 2019 | Owendale | 8 - 5 | 9 - 7 1/4 | 8 - 3 1/4 | 1 | 1 | 12-1 |
| 2018 | My Boy Jack | 9 - 10 1/2 | 9 - 10 1/4 | 6 - 6 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 | *3-2 |
| 2017 | Senior Investment | 9 - 8 1/2 | 9 - 11 1/4 | 9 - 6 | 4 - 4 | 1 | 11-1 |
| 2016 | Collected | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2015 | Divining Rod | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 1 | 1 | 5-2 |
| 2014* | Mr Speaker | 4 - 2 | 3 - 1 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 | *2-1 |
| 2013* | Winning Cause | 5 - 4 1/2 | 5 - 4 1/2 | 6 - 4 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 6-1 |
| 2012* | All Squared Away | 4 - 2 1/2 | 4 - 3 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 70-1 |
| 2011* | Derby Kitten | 6 - 5 1/2 | 6 - 6 1/2 | 6 - 3 3/4 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 1 | 9-1 |
| 2010* | Exhi | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19-1 |
| 2009* | Advice | 11 - 7 3/4 | 11 - 6 1/4 | 10 - 7 1/4 | 8 - 3 1/4 | 1 | 15-1 |
| 2008* | Behindatthebar | 10 - 15 | 9 - 14 3/4 | 7 - 10 1/2 | 4 - 3 1/2 | 1 | 5-1 |
| 2007* | Slew's Tizzy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 40-1 |
| 2006 | Showing Up | 5 - 3 3/4 | 4 - 4 | 5 - 2 | 3 - hd | 1 | *3-2 |
| 2005 | Coin Silver | 5 - 5 1/4 | 5 - 3 1/4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 13-1 |
| 2004 | Quintons Gold Rush | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5-1 |
| 2003 | Scrimshaw | 2 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 | 1 | 1 | 6-1 |
| 2002 | Proud Citizen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 2001 | Keats | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16-1 |
| 2000 | Unshaded | 7 - 11 | 7 - 9 1/4 | 7 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 6-1 |
| *Synthetic track |
Disarm fits this recent profile. His Quirin designation of P 5 comes from the fact he has not been closer than 2 1/2 lengths at the second call in any of his four races. Last month he raced along the inside of the Fair Grounds main track in mid-pack before closing to finish second to Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby (G2).
Recent history has not been kind to chalk in the Lexington. Since the Keeneland main track was converted from a Polytrack synthetic back to real dirt in 2015, My Boy Jack in 2018 was the only favorite to win the race.
__________
