The Grade 3 Gotham provided a "hold my beer" moment on my Fair Odds journey. Raising Cain won at 23-1 off my fair odds of 60-1, eclipsing previous winners whom I had given a 2-3 percent chance of winning. At 60-1, I was postulating Raising Cain would win the race just 1.64 percent of the time, which after the fact appears overly bearish. As in wrong.
The great thing about this game, though, is there are ample opportunities for revenge, and we will hope to exacta ours on Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby.
And what a Derby. The 1 1/16-mile race worth 50 Kentucky Derby points to the winner attracted one of the top horses on the Triple Crown trail in Tapit Trice, who will be making both his stakes and two-turn debut in this Grade 3 event.
And unlike previous stops on the fair-odds express, I really like the favorite in this spot. Unfortunately, I am not sure I like him as much as the public will. My fair odds on Tapit Trice are 9-5, and I expect the Todd Pletcher-trained Tapit colt will be between 4-5 and 7-5.
That's not to say there won't be opportunity, though. In particular, I think No. 7 Freedom Road and No. 11 Zydeceaux could, to borrow a former colleague's phrase, outrun their odds. I'm as interested in either as a win candidate as I am using with Tapit Trice, assuming they're overlooked vs. my fair odds.
Tapit Trice also happens to be the Paddock Prince's No. 1 Kentucky Derby contender. Check out the video below to see David Levitch dish with yours truly on all things Derby, as in Kentucky, Tampa Bay and the hat. And check out his picks, analysis, and wagering strategy for Tampa Bay, Gulfstream and Oaklawn.
