Superfecta keys: Play Parx marquee races, pair at Churchill

These Saturday races at Parx Racing and Churchill Downs meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Parx Racing

Race 11

The Gallant Bob Stakes (G2) at six furlongs on dirt exclusively for 3-year-olds attracted a field of 10. Eight runners exit dirt races, four at Parx, two at Charles Town and one each at Monmouth and Gulfstream, with the final two runners exiting turf races at Colonial and Belmont.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every six starts for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to forwardly placed runners. There should also be an advantage to locally based runners.

No, 4 Damon’s Mound won impressively on debut in 2022 on dirt and followed that up with a solid win in a graded event at Saratoga. Those runs were followed by three consecutive poor performances at two routes on dirt and a turf run. The recent return to dirt sprints has resulted in three top four finishes. He fits here as a slightly off-the-pace entry and is your key runner at 4-1.

The home court advantage starts with No. 1 Ninetyprcentmaddie, who is saddled by Butch Reid, a high percentage locally based trainer whose runner is eight for 11, with four wins, two seconds and two thirds. Most of those efforts occurred at Parx, including a win at the distance in one try. He is turning back after six consecutive routes and is an overlay at 10-1.

No. 2 Dreaming of Kona has finished in the money in three starts at the distance with two wins on synthetic and a third on dirt. His four tries in routes and on turf resulted in one second place finish at a mile at Gulfstream in an 11 horse field. He fits here running off-the-pace with some in reserve and is 10-1.

Parx based trainer Guadelupe Preciado saddles locally based no. 10 Gordian Knot, who looks competitive on his home turf, where he has four wins and a third in five tries all in sprints. He showed versatility when he ventured to other tracks, logging two wins at the distance in two tries across dirt and synthetic. He is 5-1.

Steve Asmussen ships in no. 9 Ryvit, who has four wins in five tries at the distance and is extremely tractable coming from both off the pace or on the lead in those wins. He has faced some of the toughest competition in the field and is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 2, 9 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 12

A field of nine is entered in the Cotillion Stakes (G2), a 1 1/16 dirt race for 3-year-old fillies. All runners exit dirt races, three at Saratoga, two each at Parx and Charles Town and one each at Del Mar and Monmouth.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in four starts overall and five of six at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one of every five starts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to those coming from off-the-pace.

Chad Brown saddles no. 5 Occult, who has three wins in six tries in dirt routes. She closes, can show tactical speed and looks competitive here as your key runner with odds of 6-1.

No. 6 Just Katherine is trained by small stable trainer Jose Jimenez, who has doing very well with limited stock. This filly comes out of a first at Saratoga after finishing a solid second in a restricted stake, both dirt routes. She has an overall record of two wins, two seconds and two thirds in seven lifetime starts and is 12-1.

Reid sends out no. 1 Foggy Night who has never been off the board in six lifetime Parx starts, with three wins and three second place finishes. She is nine of 10 in the money overall, with four wins and five second place finishes and is 12-1.

Doug O’Neill ships in No. 2 Ceiling Crusher, who has raced exclusively in Southern California winning at distances from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Those races were all on dirt largely against state-bred runners until she won by open lengths in a graded event at Del Mar last out, wiring the field at a mile. She has the most speed in the field, is a threat on the front end, but also has won from off the pace. She is 5-1.

The obvious betting favorite is no. 3 Pretty Mischievous. Trained by Brendan Walsh, she has never been off-the-board in nine lifetime tries, including seven wins. She is also five for five at the distance with three wins and is 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 1, 2, 3 and 6 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 13

A field of 11 has been entered in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) on dirt, a 1 1/8 mile dirt race for 3-year-olds, including two trained by Todd Pletcher. All runners exit dirt races, six at Saratoga, two at Parx and one each at Monmouth, Los Alamitos Race Course and Mountaineer.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every four starts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to those coming from off-the-pace.

Mott sends out no. 5 Scotland, who is very tractable and has three wins and one second in four dirt tries from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. He figures to be in excellent position to pass horses late and is your key runner at 6-1.

Locally based no. 6 Daydreaming Boy is trying the distance for the first time. But he clearly likes the surface, with six in-the-money finishes and four wins in nine tries. He will be passing horses late and is 12-1.

No. 2 Dreamlike, one of the Pletcher runners, reeled off four straight in-the-money finishes before encountering trouble in his last start, which is a complete toss out. He is very competitive here off those previous tries, including two at the distance. He is 10-1.

Brad Cox saddles no. 3 Saudi Crown, who has never finished off-the-board in four lifetime tries, including a second place finish in the slop at Saratoga in a graded stake at Saturday’s distance. He has the ability to track the speed and is one of the runners with the fewest tries in the field at four. His odds are 7-2.

Bob Baffert sends out no. 11 Reincarnate, who has never finished worse than third in nine dirt and turf routes excluding a poor performance in the Kentucky Derby. He is a solid contender here at 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 2, 3, 6 and 11 Total wager: $9.60.

Churchill Downs

Race 10

The Dogwood Stakes (G3) at seven furlongs on dirt for 3-year-old fillies attracted a field of nine. Five runners exit dirt races, three at Ellis Park and one each at Parx and Charles Town. Three runners exit turf races, one each at Kentucky Downs, Ellis Park and Louisiana Downs, with the final runner coming out of a synthetic race at Presque Isle Downs.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every two tries for races that show. The pace should be extremely fast with the advantage to off-the-pace runners.

Bret Calhoun has been having a great year by any measure and no. 6 Santa Fe Gold has a five for eight record on dirt and a second and third in two tries at the distance. She is a mid-pack runner with some closing kick. This filly is your key runner at 6-1.

No. 8 Norah G is a bit of a wild card, having been raced exclusively in Louisiana, largely in state-bred competition, while logging three wins and a second in five dirt starts. She has an-off pace style and is fast enough to be part of the superfecta at 12-1.

No. 2 Metaphysical is trained by solid small stable trainer Jeff Hiles and this runner has nine top four finishes in her last 10 starts across turf and dirt. She has a grinding style and should be moving past tiring runners late at odds of 10-1.

No. 9 Alexa Lou has the fewest starts in the field. After an inconsequential debut she came back with a mile win in the slop and a win at 6 1/2 furlongs both from off the pace. She should be a very strong stretch factor at 4-1.

High percentage trainer Lindsay Schultz sends out no. 1 Yesternight. She has the second fewest starts in the field with four, resulting in two wins, a second and third in three sprints and a route. While she has tactical speed she also can pass runners and is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 6 with 1, 2, 8 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

This 1 1/16 allowance race on dirt for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a full field of 12. Six runners last ran on dirt, six at Ellis and one each at Keeneland, Churchill and Fairgrounds, with the final three runners coming out of Ellis turf runs.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in every two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every 14 tries for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

One of two runners with only two starts in the field is no. 2 Call Again. Trained by Bill Mott who failed on debut in May and recently broke her maiden at one mile at Ellis being on or near the lead throughout. This runner should improve with the added distance and is your key runner at 9-2.

Trainer Whitworth Beckman seems to be getting better recently and has very solid returns for his limited number of starters. No. 9 Lexa has six starts on turf and dirt across five tracks and has a few top four finishes, including a maiden score at today’s distance from off the pace in a very solid effort at Horseshoe Indianapolis. She looks like an overlay at 20-1.

Todd Pletcher saddles the other runner in the field with only two starts, no. 6 Grand Entrance, who will be making her 3-year-old debut after a third and maiden score at similar distances at Aqueduct and Keeneland. She is going to improve and will have to pass horses based upon those runs. She is 6-1.

Ken McPeek saddles the most consistent runner in the field in no. 12 Let’s Duet, a  true grinder with two wins and two seconds at the distance in four tries and seven consecutive top four finishes on dirt. She is 5-1.

Al Stall trains no. 11 Forever After All, who has logged six seconds and a maiden breaking score in her last eight starts, all at or near today’s distance. She also has four seconds at Churchill. She is a solid in-the-money chance at 4-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 6, 9, 11 and 12 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.