Super Screener: Heart to Heart a vulnerable Tropical Turf favorite

January 11, 2019 09:47am
Super Screener: Heart to Heart a vulnerable Tropical Turf favorite
Photo: Courtesy of Keeneland
Only seven horses are expected to contend in Saturday's Grade 3, $100,000 Tropical Turf Stakes, but Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system, considers it a playable race nonetheless.

That's because he's decidedly against the big favorite, Heart to Heart, who "has had success on this turf course before," Shutty said, "but this now-8-year-old needs firm going for his best. With rain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday, and as his form naturally declines with age, he is a pure stand against as the favorite."

So, who should you play instead?

Using Shutty's handicapping and data-driven analysis, the Super Screener analyzes key races run each weekend throughout the year. What's offered here is a small sample of the full product, which this week also includes a rundown of three races at Santa Anita Park.

As for the Tropical Turf, there's a dirt-to-grass runner Shutty has in the win spot.

I couldn’t wait to see Mr Freeze try grass," Shutty said. "He has always had a more 'turfy' motion to his stride, and and he is loaded with turf breeding on the dam side, which boasts five turf winners from eight starters.

"This newly turned 4-year-old has been away for trainer Dale Romans since September, and usually his charges need a race off a layoff. But this one won his debut for Romans, and that bodes well here. Mr Freeze should press then pounce and possesses the most stamina of any horse in the field."

Mr Freeze is 15-1 on the morning line shot despite his top performance last season, a runaway victory in the West Virginia Derby (G3). Shutty's other "A" horse -- ones to play in the win spot in all types of exotic wagers -- is 10-1.

"Doctor Mounty will get the needed give in the turf course for his best," he said. "His last three running lines are crazy good and by far the best of any horse in this field with the exception of Mr Freeze’s effort in the West Virginia Derby. While he’ll be last of all behind the modest pace, he owns the best turn of foot among this bunch and will benefit from the turn back in distance."

If those two runners don't impress you, Shutty has isolated another longshot to use as a logical option before finally getting to Heart to Heart, who he ranks fourth in this field. For the full-field analysis and suggested tickets, get the Super Screener advantage today!


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