Super Screener: Churchill’s Clark features two must-bet horses

November 27, 2019 10:30am
Super Screener: Churchill’s Clark features two must-bet horses
Photo: Coady Photography

While the official morning line has yet to be set for Friday’s Grade 1, $600,000 Clark at Churchill Downs, those who wager in line with Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system figure to be rewarded handsomely if Mike Shutty’s predictions prove correct.

Shutty, author of the Super Screener, which uses time-tested, data-driven methods to “screen” out pretenders in major stakes each week, sees two Clark contenders as must-use types. Neither figure to go favored in the 1 1/8-mile race.

Tom’s d’Etat returns in the Clark off a victory in Keeneland’s Fayette (G2), but Shutty prefers to horses that finished behind him when traveling over a sloppy, sealed track back on Oct. 26.

The “tepid” top win pick is Mr Freeze, second that day by 4 1/4 lengths. Dale Romans trains the son of To Honor and Serve, who prior to the Fayette won Churchill’s Ack Ack (G3) around a one-turn mile. At age 3, he took the West Virginia Derby (G3), a nine-furlong event.

“This is a lightly raced 4-year-old making just his fourth start since January,” Shutty said of Mr Freeze. “He’s 2-for-2 on the Churchill dirt and gets this distance. His last two efforts were strong, laying out the ideal 90-plus Brisnet Pace/Speed ratings throughout in both races.

“He’s working well for this, and form cycle analysis projects continued improvement in this third race off the layoff. Mr Freeze is a prime win contender offering value.”

Shutty’s top longshot is also his other “A” horse in this event, meaning to use in the top spot on all multi-race tickets.

Mocito Rojo, a 5-year-old who made modest beginnings to his career, is a win machine who ran uncharacteristically poor when seventh in the Fayette. He entered on a streak of 11 in-the-money finishes, including a victory two starts back in Churchill’s Lukas Classic (G3).

“He did pair lifetime tops in his prior two efforts which was probably the main cause for the regression,” Shutty said of the Fayette. “In addition, it was a tricky surface that day at Keeneland and he has never popped a big number on an off surface prior. We are willing to put a line through that race as it certainly is nowhere near a representative race.”

For Shutty, the question is about whether Mocito Rojo returns to the type of form he showed in the Lukas Classic — a career top — or falls somewhere to his earlier career form, which may be a cut below Grade 1 quality.

“We do know he can succeed on this track and at this distance,” Shutty said. “The race also sets up well for him if he can avoid pressing too closely. It’s worth taking a shot at if odds are in the 20-1 range.”

Given a 12-horse Clark field with horses exiting the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Shutty considers the Clark a “great wagering opportunity.” His individual analysis of every contender, but suggested wagers, are available now to 
Super Screener subscribers for the Clark and other top Thanksgiving weekend stakes. Consider the Super Screener advantage with your plays today.

 

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