Super Screener: Bet Rebel Stakes favorites with these contenders

March 15, 2019 10:32am
Undefeated 3-year-old colts Game Winner and Improbable are the most-likely winners of Saturday's split divisions of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and their odds on the Oaklawn Park tote boards should reflect that.

Game Winner "just needs a second-place finish here to get into the Kentucky Derby field but win can win this, of course," said Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system. "He will sit off the average pace, leveraging that hefty middle/late energy distribution profile to prevail in the end."

Improbable "hasn’t missed a beat in training since his last race, and this race sets up perfectly for him as he stalks an honest pace, in the clear dispensing his powerful energy reserve in such a way that he’ll have plenty in the tank for the stretch drive despite the long layoff," Shutty added. "He continues his orderly form progression pattern at a distance that remains in his wheelhouse."

So if you're playing Saturday's Derby preps, getting more value out of wagers will mean pairing up the right runners with the big favorites. And Shutty sees some clear choices beyond the Big 2.

The Super Screener uses data-driven analysis to handicap top stakes races each week throughout the year. What's available here is a small sample of Shutty's work this weekend, with the full product including analysis of Oaklawn's Essex Handicap and other races around the country.

As for who to bet along with Improbable in the first flight of the Rebel, which goes as Race 8 on the card, Shutty has listed two "B" contenders behind him.

Galilean, "a Cal-bred colt out of the Jerry Hollendorfer barn, has blown away his rivals in his route races, taking advantage of perfect trips pressing or leading a slow pace and then just sprinting away against inferior rivals," Shutty said. "Pace will be much quicker and competition steeper here, but he projects to take a big step forward second off the layoff. Work pattern is solid.
 He is very tactical and has plenty of energy reserve to exploit at any time it is needed."

Extra Hope "
is a typical slow but steadily developing 3-year-old out of the Richard Mandella barn that won his 2019 debut rather easily in the sloppy going at Santa Anita," Shutty said. "He was no match for Improbable the race prior, or for Mucho Gusto in the Bob Hope, but he projects to move forward here second off the layoff and he’ll sit a great trip stalking all the speed from the rail and laying out energy very comfortably and steadily. Plenty should be left in the tank for the final stretch drive."

Game Winner, while an "A" contender, actually didn't receive top billing from Shutty, who in Race 10 is siding with another West Coast shipper.

Omaha Beach is a "very game Mandella-trained colt that has moved steadily forward in each start since his debut. More progression is projected here third race off the layoff. Omaha Beach is begging for more ground and will get it here. That last work was startling good, and at six furlongs to boot! This colt is sitting on go and will secure an ideal trip, pressing a pair of inferior duelers. He should offer solid value given the attention Game Winner will receive."

Shutty provides similar analysis for the rest of the Rebel fields, plus offers his suggested wagers in the full edition of the Super Screener
To get that and many more insights for the upcoming weekend, get the Super Screener advantage today!


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