Super Screener: Beating the Red Smith, River City favorites

November 16, 2018 10:13am
Super Screener: Beating the Red Smith, River City favorites
Photo: Coady Photography
Two of Saturday's three graded stakes in the United States will run on turf, first Aqueduct's $200,000 Red Smith Handicap (G3) at 3:47 p.m. ET before Churchill Downs' $100,000 River City Handicap (G3) at 5:36 p.m. In both, Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system sees vulnerable favorites.

Authored by Mike Shutty, t
he Super Screener analyzes key races run each weekend throughout the year. What's offered here is a small sample of the full product, which also handicaps Del Mar's Bob Hope Stakes (G3) for 2-year-olds.

When it comes to the older runners on turf, Shutty lists favored Zulu Alpha in the Red Smith and Mr. Misunderstood in the River City as "B" contenders. They're logical for multi-race wagers and exotics, but not must-use horses for the win spots.

Instead, here's who the Super Screener's data-driven criteria points to in both races...

"While it may look highly improbable for the 20-1 Red Smith Handicap longshot Big Bend on paper, his Super Screener signals are flashing green," Shutty said. "He enjoyed a stellar 2017 but then went cold in early 2018 and has raced just twice since April. In his last race, the Kentucky Turf Cup, he was part of a brutal pace on good turf, which is not his preference. Despite the spacing in races this year, he has moved forward in each start and projects to do so again as he returns to better form -- and hopefully is over whatever was hampering his performance. Blinkers come off, and Feargal Lynch is back in the saddle. There is certainly risk in playing him in the win spot, but the reward potential is most favorable."

"There's not a lot of pace signed on in this renewal of the River City," Shutty said. "This provides 5-1 shot Big Changes with a significant advantage, as he will dictate the pace and try to reserve enough energy for the final furlong. He will need every ounce of it to hold off these rivals, but they don't get much more reliable than Big Changes, who has missed the superfecta just once in the past 10 starts. In addition, he has performed well over the Churchill Downs surface in three attempts."

Shutty gives similar analysis on every runner in Super Screener races, plus provides suggested wagers and ranks a given race's play-ability. For more, get the Super Screener advantage with your handicapping today!


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