Shadwell Turf Mile 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

October 02, 2019 03:20pm

Value handicappers will find plenty to like in the Grade 1, $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile run Saturday at Keeneland. The field contains 14 main entries and two also-eligibles, providing the type of scenario where each contender will go off at higher odds than you’d usually expect

One of the also-eligible entries is a serious win threat if he draws in. But that is the break, as trainers love to take a shot at big races without any standout favorites present.

The Shadwell Turf Mile is carded as Race 10 with post time set for 6:15 ET. Here’s a look at the field with prospective morning line odds from Horse Racing Nation.

1. Next Shares, 20-1 (Archarcharch – Richard Baltas/Corey Lanerie – 26: 6-4-2): The defending winner appears half a step slower this year. He started off by winning the San Gabriel Stakes (G2). But he disappointed in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) with a sixth-place finish, followed by a 10th in the Turf Classic Stakes (G1) and seventh in the Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs. Granted, he found trouble in the latter race. Toss.

2. Van Beethoven, 8-1 (Scat Daddy – Aidan O’Brien/Wayne Lordan – 14: 2-2-1): While Van Beethoven turned in a decent effort to finish second in the Secretariat Stakes (G1) at Arlington Park, the quality of that field is questionable. Also, his European form isn’t what you’d hope to see. He ran eighth in the St. James’s Palace Stakes (G1) and seventh in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Now he steps up to face older horses as well as the Secretariat winner. Toss.

3. Bandua, 4-1 (The Factor – Jack Sisterson/Adam Beschizza – 13: 3-1-2): There are three solid efforts in a row in Bandua’s past performances. He faded to sixth in the Manhattan Stakes (G1) once Qurbaan went crazy on the lead and Banuda chased. He then won the Arlington Handicap (G3) and finished a solid third in the Arlington Million (G1) after setting the pace. Cutting back to one mile is a concern. Win contender.

4. Valid Point, 8-1 (Scat Daddy – Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) – 3: 3-0-0): Despite his win in the Secretariat Stakes over Van Beethoven, there’s a question of whether he’s simply fast enough to beat older horses at this stage. With that said, this is one of those rare instances where the Castellano/Brown combination might offer value. Use underneath.

5. Bowies Hero, 8-1 (Artie Schiller – Philip D'Amato/Flavien Prat – 20: 7-1-3): This west coast closer rarely travels. But his California form is decent, as he did win the Eddie Read Stakes (G2) over the summer at Del Mar and ran a good third in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. In his most-recent start, he finished fifth in the Del Mar Mile (G2) with traffic problems in the lane. When betting late closers in large fields, traffic issues are part of the deal. Use underneath.

6. Admission Office, 20-1 (Point of Entry – Brian Lynch/Jose Ortiz – 7: 3-3-1): While he lost by a half-length to Catholic Boy in the Dixie Stakes (G2), the winner was not at his best. After the Dixie, Catholic Boy ran a flat second to Preservationist in the Suburban Stakes (G2) and hasn’t run again. Admission Office’s third in the Wise Dan Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs came in another field lacking a standout. Toss.

7. Diamond Oops, 30-1 (Lookin at Lucky – Patrick Biancone/Julien Leparoux – 9: 4-1-1): At first glance, this looks like a sprinter in a one-mile race. But in fairness, the pedigree is there to get one mile. The second to Imperial Hint in the Vanderbilt (G1) at Saratoga was a solid effort, albeit somewhat aided by a dead rail. But he does own some good turf sprinting form as well. If he does handle the one mile, he could crack the superfecta. Live longshot.

8. Vintager, 20-1 (Mastercraftsman – Charles Appleby/James Doyle – 9: 2-0-1): Despite his wins in the Oettingen-Rennen Stakes (G2) and Prix Bertrand du Breuil (G3), his overall European form is not exciting. Note the ninth-place finish in the Earn of Sefton Stakes (G3) behind Zabeel Prince. At times, Lasix and a change of scenery helps Europeans move forward on U.S. soil, but he is probable to miss the board. Toss.

9. First Premio, 20-1 (Pure Prize – Mark Casse/Miguel Mena – 18: 6-3-2): He lost his last four starts with no real excuse in three of them. With Mark Casse and Team Valor International behind him, it is understandable if bettors want to take a shot on good connections. But despite picking up some checks, he belongs at a lower level. Toss.

10. Robin of Navan, 12-1 (American Post – Harry Dunlop/Florent Geroux – 34: 6-8-3): Europe brought its C team to this race. But in fairness, he only finished 4 ¾ lengths behind Circus Maximus in the Prix de Moulin Longchamp (G1). He finished seventh, though, and in turf racing four lengths is a significant margin. Geroux decides to take a shot, and this is not the strongest Grade 1. Together they might hit the board. Use underneath.

11. March to the Arch, 12-1 (Arch – Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione – 16: 5-2-1): The Wise Dan win at Churchill came against a weak field. Afterwards, he ran fifth in the Forbidden Apple Stakes (G3) and fourth in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1), followed by a troubled sixth in the Bernard Baruch (G2). Overall, he just seems a cut below winning a Grade 1. It is not hard to envision him closing for fourth late, if the race sets up adequately. Use underneath.

12. Suedois, 6-1 (Le Havre – David O’Meara/Jamie Spencer – 46: 9-10-11): Here is the 2017 Shadwell Turf Mile winner. His form this year is still sharp, as he has raced eight times and finished no worse than fourth. His lone win came in the Supreme Stakes (G3) at Goodwood. But also check out the solid third in the Summer Mile (G2) at Ascot, which is a well-known race. He’s still at the type of level to win this race. The pick.

13. Divisidero, 10-1 (Kitten’s Joy – Kelly Rubley/Julian Pimental – 28: 7-6-4): The fourth-place finisher in the 2017 edition is a familiar face by now. On his best day, he could hit the superfecta, and sometimes even win. But he does not win often anymore at an advanced age, and the Red Bank Stakes (G3) score last time came against a weak field. Use underneath.

14. Real Story, 15-1 (Fast Bullet – Ignacio Correas/Joe Bravo – 12: 4-3-1): This speedy gelding loves to set the pace. But his class is questionable. He ran well in the Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs to only lose by a half-length to Snapper Sinclair. He also only held off First Premio by a neck for second. First Premio is not a Grade 1-quality horse. With the right pace, Real Story might hang around for a piece, but the post position also presents a challenge. Use underneath.

Also eligible:

15. Get Western, 8-1 (Get Stormy – Charles LoPresti/Brian Hernandez – 12: 4-0-1): This horse will need a scratch to get in. If he does, watch out. He won the Old Friends Stakes at Kentucky Downs by 1 ½ lengths after setting the pace and earned a 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the win. Two starts ago, he won an optional claimer at Ellis Park with a 120 on TimeformUS. He had never earned those kinds of numbers previously, and he backed them up. Toss out the Wise Dan Stakes, as the pace collapsed. He can sit off Real Story and take over.  Top win contender — if he’s in.

16. Emaraaty, 10-1 (Dubawai – Chad Brown/Joel Rosario – 9: 3-1-0): Here’s another who, if he draws in, deserves a chance after a troubled fourth in the Bernard Baruch. In his North American debut, he did pick up an optional claimer at Saratoga for the Brown barn. Starting from this wide as a midpack type of runner is a tough assignment though. Use underneath.

Conclusion: If Get Western gets in, he is the choice based on his sharp form and expected value. He could sit in the perfect outside position, just off the anticipated pacesetter Real Story.

Otherwise, Suedois looks like the most reliable one out of the first 14 entries, especially with his successful experience in this race two years ago.

Given the overflow field both of them will offer enough value to place a win bet.


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