Mirroring the markets that have been open for weeks offshore and overseas, Improbable is the favorite in the first domestic futures for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Circa Sports of Las Vegas made Improbable more than 7-2 (+380) to be victorious Nov. 7 at Keeneland. Winner of three consecutive Grade 1 races for trainer Bob Baffert, the 4-year-old colt’s best price in foreign markets is 4-1.
Belmont Stakes winner Tiz The Law is next at about 4-1 (+410), shorter than his best price of 9-2 overseas. Then come four horses at much shorter prices in the U.S. than they are internationally, including Authentic at about 5-1 (+505), Maximum Security at about 6-1 (+605), Tom’s d’Etat at more than 6-1 (+625), and Preakness-winning filly Swiss Skydiver at 7-1.
Swiss Skydiver is no certainty to be entered into the race; she could go to the Distaff. Art Collector at 14-1 is also in doubt for the Classic, but that was because he was a disappointing fourth in the Preakness.
Global Campaign at more than 15-1 (+1550), By My Standards at 18-1, Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner Happy Saver at 20-1 and Tacitus at 20-1 are also among the 11 horses listed by Circa for bets that are immediate action regardless of whether horses take part in the race. Once the race is drawn in three weeks, the odds will be reposted, and the start of the race will be action.
Following its pattern from the Triple Crown, Circa is also offering “no” props for horses that are shorter than 10-1 to win. A bet that Improbable will not win the Classic is priced at –545, meaning a bet of $545 is required to win $100. The other “no” props include Tiz The Law –600, Authentic –790, Maximum Security –1005 and Tom’s d’Etat –1050.
Bets on the “no” are also action, which is to the advantage of the bettors, since failure to start the race would be treated the same as losing it. Conversely, once the race is drawn, the horse must start and actually lose the race for a “no” bet to be live.
Wagering on the Circa futures is available only in Nevada at its sportsbooks or through its mobile app.