Saturday's Best Bet: Pat On the Back can show the way in Kelso

September 20, 2019 08:12pm

Saturday’s 10th race from Belmont Park is the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap for 3-year-olds and up traveling one mile on the main track (Post Time - 5:57 p.m. ET).


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#3 PAT ON THE BACK (3-1) got caught up in a pace duel in the restricted Tale of the Cat Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 9, and I thought he ran well. He really is not a front runner, and it was a bit surprising to see him mix it up early in that six-furlong event. This distance is much better, and he can move forward in his second start after a layoff. The key to his success might be the venue change, as he loves Belmont. He has captured his last four local outings. 


#5 Prince Lucky (2-1) has been up and down this year. He won his first two graded attempts at this distance at Gulfstream earlier this year, and went off form with excuses in his next two local starts (caught slop in Westchester and raced wide against the inside bias in Met Mile). He bounced back with a strong front running victory in the State Dinner on July 7, and he is a solid contender if he duplicates his last. 


#6 Plainsman (4-1) has every right to move forward in his second start after a long layoff for Shug McGaughey. He ran on nicely for the place in his seven panel return at Saratoga on Aug. 17, and he romped in his lone local attempt last September. He needs pace help and might want more ground. 


#7 Tale of Silence (12-1) is 1-for-16 on a fast track and that victory was at this course/distance in the 2018 Westchester (G3). He enjoys this distance, and all three of his wins were at Belmont. He is usually a bigger threat underneath in the stakes ranks.  


#2 True Timber (7-2) makes his first start since shipping to Dubai and finishing up the track in the Godolphin Mile (G2) March 30. He was in decent form last year, but his last good effort in the Cigar Mile (G1) was a long time ago. 


#1 Monongahela (6-1) is cross-entered in the Parx Dirt Mile, and he is probably a bigger threat in that race. He was overmatched in the Whitney (G1) on Aug. 3, and he scored as my top choice in Monmouth’s Iselin (G3) June 22. 


#4 Golden Brown (12-1) is cross-entered and expected to run in the Parx Dirt Mile, and that's probably for the best. I really didn't like him in this spot.



Wagers: 


#3 to Win


Exacta 3/5-6


Exacta 5-6/3


Trifecta 3-5-6/3-5-6/7


September 2019 Best Bet Winners


Sept 2 - SPUN TO RUN ($5.00), Exacta ($11.40)

Sept 4 - WINTER SUNSET ($8.40)

Sept 7 - Marconi/You're To Blame Exacta ($10.60)

Sept 10 - New York Groove/Bad Little Beast Exacta ($10.60), Tri ($8.20)

Sept 13 - Restless Rambler/Heartfullofstars Exacta ($6.10)

Sept 14 - STARSHIP JUBILEE ($6.40), Exacta ($17.00), Trifecta ($9.74)

Sept 15 - DECORATED INVADER ($6.80)

Sept 16 - Hotshot Anna/Talk Veuve to Me/Misericordia Trifecta ($43.65)

Sept 17 - Altar of Speed/Golden Aces/Shomethesisters Trifecta ($22.55)

Sept 19 - Grinning Tiger/Coil Me Home Exacta ($21.80)

 

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