DeRosa: Rich Strike's exit alters Preakness betting picture

DeRosa: Rich Strike's exit alters Preakness betting picture
Photo: Jessica Morgan / Eclipse Sportswire

Regardless of what you thought of Rich Strike's chances in the Preakness Stakes, his absence completely changes the calculus of how to approach the race from a wagering perspective.

If you loved his chances, then the prospect of getting 6-1 or 8-1 on the Kentucky Derby winner likely seemed fairly attractive. If you hated his chances, then the prospect of eliminating 10 percent to 12 percent of the money bet on him to win created opportunity elsewhere.

It's that latter group that suffers most, though, those potential overlays are now underlays. This most applies to Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath, who – with Rich Strike now out –is the "story" of this year's Preakness. The story takes money, and she will take more of it now that she is not second fiddle to Rich Strike.

Derby runner-up Epicenter and Wood Memorial runner-up Early Voting figure to face suppressed prices as well. But depending on what you thought of Rich Strike's actual chances to repeat, then either Epicenter or Early Voting might have a better chance to win without the deep closer in the race to run them down.

  Horse  Trainer  HRN  Pct.
Secret OathD. Wayne Lukas  3-125.0%
ZandonChad Brown  5-116.7%
EpicenterSteve Asmussen  5-228.6%
Early VotingChad Brown  7-222.2%
Creative MinisterKenny McPeek  8-111.1%
SkippylongstockingSaffie Joseph Jr.10-1  9.1%
SimplificationAntonio Sano15-1  6.3%
Happy JackDoug O'Neill20-1  4.8%
Un OjoRicky Courville20-1  4.8%
Shake Em LooseR. Sanchez-Salomon30-1  3.2%
Field 20-1  4.8%

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