Go figure the Grade 2, $250,000 Remsen Stakes. Historically speaking, it is not easy compared with other Kentucky Derby points preps.
Last weekend, Instant Coffee was the fifth consecutive closer to win the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), typical of the style that succeeds in prep races at Churchill Downs. It has been just the opposite at Santa Anita, where 12 of the last 20 runnings of the track’s Derby preps for 3-year-olds were won by frontrunners.
Click here for Aqueduct entries and results.
At Aqueduct, the Remsen has not had a clear pattern. In the last 12 years, four winners showed early speed, five came from at least three lengths off the pace, and three were close to the pace. Those stalkers included Mo Donegal, who won last December.
These have been the Remsen winners’ past-performance lines since 1991, according to Equibase charts:
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Mo Donegal | 4 - 1 1/2 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 5 - 1 3/4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | Brooklyn Strong | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | 2 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 2019 | Shotski | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | Maximus Mischief | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | Catholic Boy | 6 - 3 | 5 - 2 | 4 - 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Mo Town | 4 - 6 | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Mohaymen | 4 - 2 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2014 | Leave the Light On | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Honor Code | 4 - 3 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 2012 | Overanalyze | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 2011 | O'Prado Again | 7 - 5 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 1 |
| 2010 | To Honor and Serve | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | Buddy's Saint | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Old Fashioned | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Court Vision | 3 - 4 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 3 | 1 |
| 2006 | Nobiz Like Shobiz | 3 - 1 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/4 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | Bluegrass Cat | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2004 | Rockport Harbor | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | Read the Footnotes | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Toccet | 2 - hd | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2001 | Saarland | 7 - 7 1/2 | 7 - 2 3/4 | 8 - 3 1/4 | 5 - 3/4 | 1 |
| 2000 | Windsor Castle | 8 - 5 1/4 | 8 - 3 1/4 | 7 - 2 1/4 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 1999 | Greenwood Lake | 8 - 11 | 8 - 10 | 7 - 7 3/4 | 6 - 3 1/2 | 1 |
| 1998 | Comeonmom | 6 - 7 1/2 | 6 - 9 1/2 | 6 - 5 | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 1997 | Coronado's Quest | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1996 | The Silver Move | 2 - hd | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1995 | Tropicool | 3 - 2 1/2 | 5 - 4 | 6 - 5 1/2 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 1 |
| 1994 | Thunder Gulch | 7 - 5 | 7 - 3 3/4 | 4 - 1 1/4 | 2 - 1 | 1 |
| 1993 | Go for Gin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1992 | Silver of Silver | 10 - 6 1/4 | 9 - 5 | 5 - 2 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1991 | Pine Bluff | 2 - hd | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
Saturday’s renewal of the 1 1/8-mile race is expected to include potential pacesetters Arctic Arrogance, Midnight Trouble and Prove Right as well as stalker Quick to Accuse and closers Dubyuhnell and 2-for-2 Tuskegee Airmen.
It has been far easier to see what Remsen styles fit on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Of the last 14 horses to graduate from the New York prep, 10 have been closers. Mo Donegal and Zandon came from off the pace to finish 1-2 in the 2021 Remsen. Zandon went on to finish second and Mo Donegal fifth in a Derby that rewarded 80-1 winner Rich Strike, who closed on the suicidal early pace.
These were the horses who raced in both the Remsen and Kentucky Derby since the fall of 1999, with Quirin Speed Points showing their running styles:
| Year | Horse | Quirin | Remsen | *Derby |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Zandon | S 3 | 2nd | 3rd |
| Mo Donegal | S 2 | 1st | 5th | |
| 2020 | Known Agenda | P 3 | 3rd | ** 8th |
| Brooklyn Strong | E/P 4 | 1st | **14th | |
| 2019 | ||||
| 2018 | Tax | E/P 6 | 3rd | **14th |
| 2017 | ||||
| 2016 | ||||
| 2015 | Mohaymen | E/P 6 | 1st | 4th |
| 2014 | Frosted | E/P 4 | 2nd | 4th |
| Keen Ice | S 1 | 3rd | 7th | |
| 2013 | Wicked Strong | P 0 | 3rd | 4th |
| Intense Holiday | P 2 | 4th | 12th | |
| 2012 | Normandy Invasion | S 2 | 2nd | 4th |
| Overanalyze | S 4 | 1st | 11th | |
| 2011 | El Padrino | P 5 | 3rd | 13th |
| Done Talking | S 0 | 4th | 14th | |
| 2010 | Mucho Macho Man | E/P 6 | 2nd | 3rd |
| 2009 | Homeboykris | E/P 6 | 5th | 16th |
| 2008 | Atomic Rain | E 6 | 2nd | 16th |
| Hold Me Back | S 0 | 5th | 12th | |
| 2007 | Court Vision | S 3 | 1st | 13th |
| Big Truck | P 3 | 4th | 18th | |
| 2006 | Nobiz Like Shobiz | E 7 | 1st | 10th |
| 2005 | Bluegrass Cat | E/P 6 | 1st | 2nd |
| Flashy Bull | E/P 5 | 2nd | 14th | |
| 2004 | ||||
| 2003 | Read the Footnotes | E/P 6 | 1st | 7th |
| Master David | E/P 5 | 2nd | 12th | |
| 2002 | Empire Maker | P 5 | 3rd | 2nd |
| 2001 | Saarland | S 3 | 1st | 10th |
| 2000 | ||||
| 1999 | ||||
| *Following year | ||||
| **Promoted | ||||
| E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
| E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
| P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
| S - Sustainer (closer) |
The 2019 foals who came through the New York preps last season had exceptional Triple Crown results in 2022. Early Voting, who scored last February in the Withers (G3) and placed second in the April running of the Wood Memorial (G2), finished first in the Preakness. Nest parlayed her victory in the 2021 Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct into a second-place finish to Mo Donegal in the Belmont.
However, the 108 previous runnings of the Remsen have produced only six Kentucky Derby winners and none since 1995.
| Derby winner | *Remsen | Trainer |
|---|---|---|
| 1939 Johnstown | 1st | Jim Fitzsimmons |
| 1961 Carry Back | 1st | Jack Price |
| 1964 Northern Dancer | 1st | Horatio Luro |
| 1981 Pleasant Colony | 1st | John Campo |
| 1994 Go for Gin | 1st | Nick Zito |
| 1995 Thunder Gulch | 1st | D. Wayne Lukas |
| *Previous year |
Of the current points races that were established as preps before 2000, only the Sam F. Davis (G3), Iroquois (G3) and Gotham (G3) have had longer droughts than the Remsen when it comes to producing a Derby winner.
| Last Derby winner | Prep |
|---|---|
| Never (42 runnings) | Sam F. Davis (G3) |
| Never (41 runnings) | Iroquois (G3) |
| Never (22 runnings) | UAE Derby (G2) |
| Never (21 runnings) | Springboard Mile |
| Never (17 runnings*) | Withers (G3) |
| Never (15 runnings) | Smarty Jones (G3) |
| Never (12 runnings*) | Jerome |
| Never (8 runnings) | Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) |
| 1973 Secretariat | Gotham (G3) |
| 1995 Thunder Gulch | Remsen (G2) |
| 1999 Charismatic | El Camino Real Derby |
| 1999 Charismatic | Lexington (G3) |
| 2003 Funny Cide | Wood Memorial (G2) |
| 2004 Smarty Jones | Southwest (G3) |
| 2006 Barbaro | Holy Bull (G3) |
| 2007 Street Sense | Blue Grass (G1) |
| 2007 Street Sense | Breeders' Futurity (G1) |
| 2009 Mine That Bird | Sunland Park Derby (G3) |
| 2010 Super Saver | Champagne (G1) |
| 2010 Super Saver | Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) |
| 2010 Super Saver | Tampa Bay Derby (G2) |
| 2012 I'll Have Another | Robert B. Lewis (G3) |
| 2013 Orb | Fountain of Youth (G2) |
| 2015 American Pharoah | Rebel (G2) |
| 2016 Nyquist | American Pharoah (G1)** |
| 2016 Nyquist | Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) |
| 2017 Always Dreaming | Florida Derby (G1) |
| 2019 Country House | Arkansas Derby (G1) |
| 2020 Authentic | San Felipe (G2) |
| 2020 Authentic | Santa Anita Derby (G1) |
| 2020 Authentic | Sham (G3) |
| 2021 Mandaloun | Lecomte (G3) |
| 2021 Mandaloun | Louisiana Derby (G2) |
| 2021 Mandaloun | Risen Star (G2) |
| 2022 Rich Strike | Gun Runner |
| 2022 Rich Strike | John Battaglia Memorial |
| 2022 Rich Strike | Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) |
| *As Kentucky Derby prep | |
| **FrontRunner in 2015 |
Entries for the Remsen will be taken Wednesday. The race will be run on the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) undercard.
