Queen's Plate 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

June 26, 2019 11:46am

Woodbine presents the 160th Queen’s Plate on Saturday. The 1 ¼-mile contest is limited to Canadian-bred 3-year-olds, hence there is no grade for this race. But the race usually includes some familiar names to American racing fans, and this edition is no exception.

For instance, Tone Broke, Skywire and Federal Law are names most fans will recognize before handicapping. After some dismal efforts in Dubai, Tone Broke recently returned to North America and finished second in the Sir Barton Stakes (G3) to King for a Day, who went on to beat Maximum Security.

But the synthetic surface forces handicappers think twice, even with horses in their top form, as the surface change tends to even the playing field. 

The Queen's Plate is carded as Race 10 with post time set for 5:36 p.m. ET. Here's a look at the field with the official morning line:

1. Desert Ride, 8-1 (Candy Ride – Neil Howard/Steven Bohen – 4: 3-1-0): It is not unusual to see legitimate filly contenders in the Queen’s Plate. This one won the Woodbine Oaks with a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the same number rival Federal Law earned in finishing second in the Plate Trial. If a hot pace materializes, expect her to show up late and get in the mix. But it's impossible to pick them all on top.  Use underneath.

2. Moon Swing, 30-1 (Malibu Moon – Michael De Paulo/Jesse Campbell – 9: 0-0-4): This gelding only finished fourth in the Plate Trial, but he did not lose by much after racing in mid-pack for most of the race. Evenly-paced horses in shorter races tend to handle the stretch out to 1 1/4 miles better than others. But he is still an 0-for-9 maiden. Use underneath.

3. Krachenwagen, 50-1 (Head Chopper – Angus Buntain/Jeffrey Alderson – 7: 1-0-3): As with Moon Swing, he ran evenly in the Plate Trial by starting fifth and finishing fifth. At least this contender owns win, which came in his career debut. Plus, the third in a local May 20 starter allowance is not bad. Live longshot.

4. Pay for Peace, 15-1 (Silent Name – Rachel Halden/Rafael Hernandez – 8: 2-1-0): Where did his effort in the Plate Trial come from? He stalked a fast pace set by Federal Law and then kicked on to victory at 19-1. Before that, he finished off-the-board in both of his optional claiming attempts this year. It feels like last race was the time to bet him on top, as his price will go down in this spot and he faces tougher. Use underneath.

5. One Bad Boy, 7/2 (Twirling Candy – Richard Baltas/Flavien Prat – 4: 1-2-1): He ran a good second in the Alcatraz Stakes at Golden Gate. But it is concerning that he pressed a moderate pace set by Kingly and could not finish the job in the stretch run. In all likelihood, this one will not handle the distance. Toss.

6. Lucas N’ Lori, 50-1 (Exhi – Kevin Attard/Kazushi Kimura – 6: 1-2-0): With finishes of 10th and sixth
 in two optional claimers this year, it's difficult to imagine this one winning the Queen's Plate. Toss.

7. Federal Law, 15-1 (Scat Daddy – Mark Casse/Jamie Spencer – 11: 3-4-1): Good effort in the Plate Trial. He secured the lead, opened up on the far turn through a fast pace and then held on for second. TimeformUS awarded him a 100 figure, two points higher than the winner Pay for Peace. But can he last 1 1/4 miles? Because of that question, he is worth playing against on top. Use underneath.

8. He’s a Macho Man, 15-1 (Mucho Macho Man – Josie Carroll/Patrick Husbands – 3: 2-0-0): Toss out the Gulfstream flop on dirt, and he is 2-for-2 locally. But in his most recent win, he only beat Jammin Still, who ran seventh in the Plate Trial. The gut feeling is that he is outclassed against this group, despite the local record. Toss.

9. Suitedconnected, 50-1 (Rookie Sensation – Robert Barnett/Gary Boulanger – 4: 1-0-0): With two bad efforts in optional claimers on both synthetic and turf this year, it is hard to make a case. Notice his maiden win came in a sprint. Toss.

10. Skywire, 4-1 (Afleet Alex – Mark Casse/Eurico Rosa Da Silva) – 5: 3-1-0): Son of Afleet Alex rebounded nicely from his flop in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) by returning to Woodbine and winning the Wando Stakes. Then he turned in another good effort in the Marine Stakes (G3) by finishing a closing second to Global Access. Perhaps it is only Turfway’s Polytrack he does not handle. I expect him to fall just short here against a tougher group. Use underneath.

11. Tone Broke, 6-1 (Broken Vow – Steven Asmussen/Luis Contreras – 8: 2-1-0): The runner-up to King for a Day in the Sir Barton will attract attention, as the winner there is destined to compete in the best 3-year-old races. Tone Broke only lost by 2 ½ lengths, and coming off his poor Dubai efforts that was nice to see. As for concerns about switching surfaces, Broken Vow is a great synthetic sire. The top pick.

12. Jammin Still, 30-1 (Take Charge Indy – Kevin Attard/Alan Garcia – 5: 1-1-0): Since his maiden win, Jammin Still’s best effort has been a close second to He’s a Macho Man in an optional claimer. He disappointed by finishing seventh in the Plate Trial, though, and that is enough reason to place other horses ahead of him. Toss.

13. Rising Star, 30-1 (Ghostzapper – Michael De Paulo/Justin Stein – 8: 0-0-3): While this 0-for-8 maiden lacks any wins, he did finish a closing third in the Plate Trial Stakes. In big races such as this one, there is usually enough pace for a late closer to pick off tired horses for a piece. Use underneath.

14. Avie’s Flatter, 5/2 (Flatter – Josie Carroll/Javier Castellano– 6: 4-0-0): Locally, this horse is 2-for-2 on synthetic. He also owns a win in the local Cup and Saucer on turf, and backed up his quality form with a win in the Transylvania Stakes (G3) over at Keeneland. This is a good horse who loves the Tapeta surface. Win contender.

Conclusion: 
Returning to North America woke up Tone Broke. He shows many positives, including solid connections, the ability to rate and proven class shown at Pimlico. While unproven on synthetic, as already stated, Broken Vow is great on all surfaces.

If he repeats the Sir Barton (G3) effort where he earned a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure, it should prove good enough to win against this field.

Win: 11

Exacta wheels: 11 / 1,2,3,10,14 with 11/ 1,10,14 pressed more.

(Plays are always subject to change depending on expected exacta payouts.)

 

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