Looking at the early odds for the $1 million Preakness Stakes, the biggest questions surround the Bob Baffert runners. How low will Medina Spirit's odds be? And will the other Baffert runner, Concert Tour, who was more highly regarded by many in the runup to the Kentucky Derby, be favored?
Looking back at the last 10 Preakness runnings that featured the Kentucky Derby winner, we can see that nearly every Derby winner was heavily bet in the Preakness. The exceptions were the longer-priced Derby winners. I'll Have Another, who captured the roses at 15-1 in 2012, went off as a 3.20-1 second choice behind Bodemeister in the Preakness; and Animal Kingdom, who took the Derby at 20-1 in 2011, went off as a 2.30-1 favorite in Maryland that year.
This potentially points to Medina Spirit being the higher end of the range for odds for Derby winners, somewhere between 1.50-1 and 2.50-1.
Here are the Preakness post-time odds for the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners.
Kentucky Derby winner's Preakness odds since 2010
|Year||Derby winner ||Odds ||Preakness |
|2020 ||Authentic ||1.50 ||2nd |
|2018 ||Justify ||0.40 ||1st |
|2017 ||Always Dreaming ||1.20 ||8th |
|2016 ||Nyquist ||0.70 ||3rd |
|2015 ||American Pharoah ||0.90 ||1st |
|2014 ||California Chrome ||0.50 ||1st |
|2013 ||Orb ||0.70 ||4th |
|2012 ||I'll Have Another ||3.20 ||1st |
|2011 ||Animal Kingdom ||2.30 ||2nd|
|2010 ||Super Saver ||1.90 ||8th |
Of those 10 Kentucky Derby winners, only I'll Have Another was not favored in the Preakness. Since 1996, only six times has the Derby winner not been favored in the Preakness:
- 2012, I'll Have Another, 3.20-1, 1st
- 2009, Mine That Bird, 6.60-1, 2nd
- 2005, Giacomo, 6.00-1, 3rd
- 2001, Monarchos, 2.30-1, 6th
- 1999, Charismatic, 8.40-1, 1st
- 1998, Real Quiet, 2.50-1, 1st
It is worth noting that 50 percent of these non-favored Derby winners did win the Preakness, often at decent odds.
Looking at this year's Preakness, there is a certain amount of discussion that Concert Tour could be favored over Medina Spirit. However, we don't see it that way. Millions of viewers just watched Medina Spirit win the Derby and look good doing it, which will have a bigger effect than Concert Tour's prep season reputation as a more highly regarded horse. Secondly, Medina Spirit earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in the Derby, which is significantly higher than Concert Tour's top figure of 94.
After the top two, there is a gap to a few others that have different merits.
- Midnight Bourbon ran a troubled sixth in the Kentucky Derby.
- Crowded Trade ran third in the Wood Memorial, but preceded that by finishing second by a nose in the Gotham and earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure.
- Risk Taking was a 3 3/4 length winner of the Withers on Feb. 6, but finished a disappointing seventh in the Wood Memorial.
- Rombauer ran a somewhat distant third behind Essential Quality and Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass, earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure in the process.
In the end, we settled on Medina Spirit as a 9-5 favorite, with Concert Tour close behind at 5-2.