Ohio Derby 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

June 17, 2019 01:18pm
Ohio Derby 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race
Photo: Courtesy of NYRA

A field of seven entered Saturday’s Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby, the signature race each June at JACK Thistledown, with two colts exiting the Triple Crown series the top choices.

Global Campaign will join Kentucky Derby runner Long Range Toddy and Preakness Stakes contender Owendale going 1 1/8 miles in a short but, at the same time, deep field.

Here’s the field and morning line odds for the Ohio Derby, which goes to post 5:10 p.m. ET.

1. Math Wizard, 8-1 (Algorithms — Saffie Joseph/Edgard Zayas — 9: 2-1-2): Blinkers come off after a fourth-place effort in the Oaklawn Invitational won by Laughing Fox, who went on to the Preakness Stakes from there. Two back, this former claimer impressed when fourth in the Wood Memorial (G2) won by Tacitus. In higher-class races, he has run mid-pack or farther back and failed to kick on to seriously compete. In this top-heavy race, expect something similar. Underneath at best.

2. Owendale, 9-5 (Into Mischief — Brad Cox/Florent Geroux — 9: 3-1-2): He ran on the outside, against a supposed bias, to finish third in the Preakness Stakes and continues to look like an improving 3-year-old. Two back, he closed with another outside run to win Keeneland’s Lexington (G3). Stablemate Warrior’s Charge set him up at Pimlico, and there doesn’t appear to be quite as much speed signed on this time. Can he get there? Win contender.

3. Long Range Toddy, 5-2 (Take Charge Indy — Steve Asmussen/Jon Court — 9: 4-1-1): Before pulled up and out of trouble in the Kentucky Derby, he was running a huge race, lined up along with the top flight of contenders through the far turn. A sixth in the Arkansas Derby (G1) now appears an aberration on the resume of an otherwise consistent colt. At his best, Long Range Toddy brings tactical speed and a win threat. It’s worth considering, too, that he could bounce a bit out of the Derby and tough spring campaign. Board hitter.

4. Global Campaign, 3-1 (Curlin — Stanley Hough/Luis Saez — 4: 3-0-0): Entered here, he’s not a sure thing to run due to a lingering foot issue. With Belmont’s Dwyer (G3) a backup plan, it’s safe to say that if he shows up at Thistledown, Global Campaign is ready to roll. Last time he pressed early and held off a furious late rally by the eventual Belmont Stakes winner, Sir Winston, in taking the Peter Pan (G3). This time, he could take control as the best horse who wants any part of the pace. My top choice.

5. Going for Gold, 20-1 (Atreides — Bob Hess Jr./Jose Bracho — 4: 0-2-0): The first of two in the field owned by Ron Paolucci Racing remains a maiden after a pair of seconds to open his career, then ninth-place finishes in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs and last time in a March 9 maiden special weight event at Gulfstream Park. He shows four consistent works since then and should show early speed before fading. Toss.

6. Bethlehem Road, 6-1 (Quality Road — Dee Curry/Luis Rodriguez Castro — 3: 3-0-0): The trainer Curry will be shooting for her first graded stakes victory with a Parx Racing-based gelding who is unbeaten but also relatively untested. Last time, Bethlehem Road won the Parx Spring Derby on the front end. He could set the fractions again here, or may yield to Global Campaign. Bethlehem Road may be worth using, as his last out number fits decently here. Use underneath? 

7. Dare Day, 15-1 (Can the Man — Jeff Radosevich/Luis Raul Rivera — 2: 2-0-0): Paolucci’s second entry, this Ohio-bred is unbeaten in two starts, breaking his maiden April 27 by 8 1/2 lengths at Belterra Park before a 7 1/2-length allowance win on May 21 at Thistledown. While the speed figure came back on par, he’ll also be stretching out from a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, and numbers are typically higher for one-turn races. Toss.

Summary:
There’s a question to be asked of the top three choices with Long Range Toddy exiting a hard race, Owendale needing a snappy pace and Global Campaign dealing with his foot issue. Even if all three aren’t at their best, are any of these rivals really fit to upset? I recommend keeping wagers tight and limiting spending on this race in the multi-race bets. For me, that means keying on Global Campaign, should he run. Owendale is the next logical pick.

 

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