Mother Goose Stakes 2019: Odds and analysis

June 26, 2019 05:46pm

Chad Brown-trained Dunbar Road headlines Saturday's Grade 2, $250,000 Mother Goose as the 3-year-old fillies take the stage at Belmont Park. The race runs at a mile and a sixteenth, which around "Big Sandy" is contested at one turn.

The Mother Goose attracted a field of six, of which only one contender is a previous graded winner, and that filly scored at 51-1.

Slated as Race 8 of 9 in New York, the Mother Goose is scheduled for 5:18 p.m. ET. Here's a full-field analysis with projected morning line odds from Horse Racing Nation:
 

Dunbar Road [ML 7-5 – Quality Road – C. Brown/J. Ortiz – 3: 2-1-0 - $120,400] The lightly raced daughter of Quality Road will be the favorite when sent out by the prominent pair of owner Peter Brant and trainer Chad Brown. She was an open-lengths winner of her debut at Gulfstream Park and then ran an inexperienced second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). That landed her on the also-eligible list for the Kentucky Oaks. She didn’t get into that field, where she would have been one of the top choices. In May, Brown got Dunbar Road back on the track with another easy victory, this time in allowance company at Belmont. Who knows how good she could be? The top choice.

Classic Fit [ML 3-1 – Bernardini – M. Stidham/J. Lezcano – 4: 3-0-1 - $88,370] This filly ended last year on a three-race winning streak that included a one mile stakes victory in Gulfstream Park's Hut Hut, but she has yet to make her 2019 debut. She has been training at Michael Stidham’s base at Fair Hill in Maryland. It would be a lot to expect her to be ready to win a Grade 2 off a layoff dating back to December. Use underneath.

Safta [ML 30-1 – Dialed In – D. Magner/J. Rosario – 4: 1-1-1 - $73,725] With a front-running victory on a sloppy Belmont track, she registered her maiden victory after four tries. Safta, as with Dunbar Road, made the Gulfstream Park Oaks her second career start. This one finished fifth, indicating she'll have to make an enormous step up in class to win in this spot. Toss.

Jeltrin [ML 4-1 – Tapizar – A. Delgado/L. Reyes – 8: 2-1-2 - $241,088] She was the bombs away winner of the Davona Dale (G2) at Gulfstream Park in March when off at odds of 51-1 in a field that featured a much more respected version of the champion Jaywalk. Next in the Kentucky Oaks, she ran at the back of the field the entire way but bounced back with a third in the Acorn (G1) just three weeks ago in another one-turn race at Belmont. She was an enormous longshot in her last five starts but should take more money here. Board hitter.

Cassies Dreamer [ML 12-1 – Flatter – B. Tagg/M. Franco – 6: 2-0-2 - $224,250] She showed promise as a 2-year-old when thid in a pair of Grade 1 races in New York. That led up to a respectable fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. In her 2019 debut, Cassies Dreamer had a bad trip when trying the turf for the first time. She rebounded with a victory in an off-the-grass allowance at Belmont last month on a sloppy track. Live longshot.

Wings of Dawn [ML 7-2 – Medaglia d’Oro – M. Casse/D. Davis – 4: 2-0-0 - $60,025] She was entered in last Saturday’s Wild Applause Stakes at Belmont, but trainer Mark Casse scratched from that race on the turf to opt for a try on the main track. It was when she hit the artificial surface at Woodbine that she broke her maiden and then won an allowance. Will she be able to transfer her recent success to the big sandy oval in New York? Casse is very good with these surface switches and noted Woodbine has a dirt training track where Wings of Dawn has prepared for this race. Use underneath.

Summary
: It appears the Mother Goose is the perfect spot for Dunbar Road to affirm her talent, just as lightly raced Guarana did when dominating the Acorn for the Brown barn. If Dunbar Road wins Saturday, Brown will have two particularly classy dirt fillies moving on to Saratoga.

Dunbar Road’s task should be an easier one than when Guarana had to contend with the Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress. Dunbar Road has the tactical speed to control the Mother Goose from the start with the main question for handicappers to ponder: Who will complete the exacta?

 

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