Longshots to bet in Sunday stakes at Woodbine, Golden Gate

December 09, 2017 11:49am
By Jarrod Horak

The stakes action might be scarce on Sunday, but both races on the docket have interesting longshot chances. Let’s dive in and see if we can make some money. 

Woodbine Race 10: Valedictory Stakes (5:40 p.m. ET)

This Grade 3 event, with a $125,000 purse for 3-year-olds and up traveling 1 3/4 miles on the all-weather surface, features 7-5 morning line favorite
 Melmich. The talented gelding is 16-for-33 lifetime and is an obvious win threat. He finished second as the chalk in last year’s renewal.

An interesting longshot to consider is
 Leavem in Malibu at 8-1 on the line. As a sophomore in 2016, he ended up a respectable sixth of 13 in the Queen’s Plate in just his fourth lifetime start, and followed that up with a second in the Prince of Wales and a third in the Breeders’ Stakes. He was a bit slow to come around this season after a year layoff and got back on the beam in a sharp optional claiming victory at Woodbine on Nov. 26. He figures in the hunt throughout under Patrick Husbands and can end his 4-year-old campaign on a high note. 

Pumpkin Rumble 
is a second price-player to consider at 6-1. The sharp, consistent 6-year-old gelding finished in the top two in all four all-weather starts at Woodbine and should pounce from midpack under Jesse Campbell. He is an exotics player at the very least. 

For wagering purposes, I will bet Leavem in Malibu and Pumpkin Rumble to win, then play them in an exacta box as well.

Golden Gate Race 7: 
Miss America Stakes (6:15 p.m. ET)

A full field of 14 have assembled for this $50,000 turf route stakes affair for fillies and mares.
 Lady Valeur is the tepid 7-2 morning line choice, and she captured the $50,000 Golden Poppy Stakes earlier this year in her lone Golden Gate turf outing. 

Kathy's Song 
is a viable alternative to the aforementioned favorite at 4-1. The Southern California shipper was part of the exacta in her previous four turf attempts at a mile and a sixteenth and projects a decent stalking trip under Brice Blanc. The pace was too quick for her in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss last time and she ended up an okay 5th after falling too far behind in the early going. 

The longshot that intrigues me the most is
 Miss Southern Miss at 12-1. Keith Desormeaux’s lightly raced 3-year-old filly won the Surfer Girl Stakes in her first turf try at Santa Anita Park last fall. After a 7-plus month hiatus, she returned to finish fifth of 12 (beaten 2 1/2 lengths) in the Unzip Me Stakes on the downhill turf course Sept. 30, and was a puzzling last of 13 as my top selection in the aforementioned Autumn Miss on Oct. 29. She drew unlucky post position 13 for this but is capable of hanging with this group on her best day and will try to get involved late under profitable turf rider Aaron Gryder. 

As for the wagers, I will make an across-the-board bet on Miss Southern Miss. I will also play an exacta with Kathy's Song on top of Lady Valeur and Miss Southern Miss.  


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