Ky. Derby preps: Identifying styles that win 4 weekend preps

Asterisks notwithstanding, Mandaloun and Country House were Kentucky Derby winners who emerged from two of the last four runnings of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.

Pace dependent or not, Rich Strike still hit the board in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) before his 80-1 surprise last spring at Churchill Downs.

The Sunland Park Derby (G3) made a name for itself in 2009 when it graduated Mine That Bird to a 50-1 upset in Kentucky.

Strangely enough, Mine That Bird, Country House and Mandaloun did not even hit the board in their final preps, and Rich Strike finished a distant third in his.

All three preps will be run again this weekend as will the UAE Derby (G2), which has yet to produce an in-the-money finisher in the Kentucky Derby.

Three of the races are worth 100-40-30-20-10 points to their top fives, virtually assuring the first- and second-place finishers a place in the May 6 classic. The Sunland Park Derby is worth 50-20-15-10-5, making it all but mathematically a win-and-you’re-in qualifier for Churchill Downs.

Two of the preps have been kind recently to early speed or stalkers. One has rewarded closers. The fourth has not had an obvious winning trend in its checkered recent history.

Louisiana Derby

Since Fair Grounds extended it from 1 3/16 to 1 1/8 miles three years ago, the Louisiana Derby has been won by pacesetters Wells Bayou in 2020 and Hot Rod Charlie in 2021 and then a stalking Epicenter in 2022.

It was the second lengthening of the race since 2010, when it went from 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 miles. Of the 13 winners in that span, nine were within two lengths of the lead at every call.

These were the form lines for all the Louisiana Derby winners since 2000, as gleaned from Equibase charts:

Instant Coffee, Sun Thunder and Kingsbarns, the top three choices on the morning line for Saturday’s renewal, belie the recent trend. Instant Coffee came from last place, six lengths behind, to win in the January running of the Lecomte (G3). Sun Thunder made up 10 lengths to finish second last month in the Risen Star (G2). Kingsbarns, who is 2-for-2, came from mid-pack in his allowance victory Feb. 12 at Tampa Bay Downs.

None of the 12 entrants this weekend carries a Quirin Speed Points designation of E, which is emblematic of forward placing.

To that end, Country House and Mandaloun had off-the-pace styles that eventually were rewarded in the Kentucky Derby, where these 62 horses started since 2000 after racing in the Louisiana Derby:

Epicenter, who would go on win his division’s Eclipse Award, was an exception to the rule last year. In the qualifying-points era that began 10 years ago, six of the eight Louisiana Derby runners who wound up in the money in the Kentucky Derby had a P or S designation, meaning a mid-pack or closing style.

When it comes to passing muster at Churchill Downs, the last two decades have been much kinder to the Louisiana Derby. Before Funny Cide in 2003, only Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996 came out of Fair Ground’s signature event to win America’s biggest race.

Jeff Ruby Steaks

When Tiz the Bomb scored last year at 8-5 odds, he was the second favorite in four years to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Even so, chalk has not fared well in the race known until five years ago as the Spiral. There were no winning favorites between 1999 and 2018. Now in a season when Turfway Park’s Tapeta course has been rougher on short-priced horses than any track in the country, it stands to reason this year’s renewal might be harder to gauge.

If there has been a recent trend to go along with the increasing importance of the race, it has been the success of closers who have won four of the last five runnings.

Major Dude, who won last out on the turf Feb. 4 in the Kitten’s Joy (G3) at Gulfstream Park, brings an off-the-pace style to Saturday’s Jeff Ruby, where he is the 2-1 morning-line favorite. So do Street Sense (G3) winner Two Phil’s, who was third last out in the Risen Star (G2), as well as Congruent and Scoobie Quando, who finished one-two last month at Turfway in the John Battaglia Memorial.

Rich Strike’s success in 2022 came in the second year the Jeff Ruby was worth 100 Derby points to the winner, a move that coincided with Churchill Downs Inc. buying the track. After going three years without sending any of its finishers to the Louisville, Ky., classic, the Jeff Ruby has graduated five horses to the last two runs for the roses.

Three of the four horses who came out of Turfway’s signature race and hit the board at Churchill Downs came from off the pace, including Derby winners Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike in 2022.

Sunland Park Derby

Finding a winning pattern has been as much of a challenge for this race as it has to keep it going, what with outbreaks of the equine herpesvirus in 2016 and the human coronavirus in 2020 and 2021.

Slow Down Andy stalked the lead on the way to winning last year. The three runnings between 2017 and 2019 were won by runners coming from off the pace. Forward-going horses were winners from 2013 to 2015.

Robert B. Lewis (G3) runner-up Hard to Figure and Mine That Bird Derby winner Henry Q, the top two choices on the morning line for Sunday’s renewal of the race, are likely to be on or near the early lead. Fort Bragg, who finished fifth only three weeks ago in the San Felipe (G2), has been versatile with his style.

Because he is trained by Bob Baffert, Hard to Figure is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby. If he were to win and the other horses fell short of qualifying, this could mark the fourth year in a row there would be no Sunland Park Derby graduate going to America’s biggest race.

Aside from Mine That Bird’s storybook triumph in 2009, Firing Line was the only other horse from this race who hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, where he came in second in 2015 in American Pharoah’s Triple Crown spring.

UAE Derby

More than a third of a world away, the UAE Derby has been a lot like the Louisiana Derby has been lately. Each race goes 1 3/16 miles and has been kind to early speed.

Since it is not run in North America, race charts are not filed with Equibase. The profiles shown here of the first 23 winners came from trip notes and charts logged at the U.K.-based publication Racing Post.

Cairo, the early 5-2 betting favorite in Saturday’s 13-horse field, has been prominent early in his first five races, including his March 3 Patton Stakes triumph on the all-weather track at Dundalk, Ireland. This weekend will mark his first time racing on real dirt.

The maiden Worcester, the 6-1 second choice who is trained by Baffert and ineligible for Kentucky Derby points, has come from off the pace in his three races at Santa Anita, most recently his third-place effort in the Bob Lewis.

With its $1 million purse, the UAE Derby has been a major prep for the Kentucky Derby since the points system’s inception 10 years ago. Yet it is the only one of the eight races currently worth 100 points to the winner that has yet to spawn a victor in America’s biggest race.

Last year the UAE Derby provided an indelible stamp on the Kentucky Derby when Summer Is Tomorrow set the suicidal pace that played right into the hooves of Rich Strike.