Ky. Derby prep trends: Differing styles win in Florida, Arkansas

Eclipse Award winner Forte and the Florida Derby look like they were made for one another.

In spite of his draw into post 11, the top futures choice to win Kentucky Derby 2023 will be a heavy favorite Saturday at Gulfstream Park for the Grade 1, $1 million race that has produced a record 24 previous winners of America’s biggest classic.

The four-time graded-stakes winner owned by Mike Repole and Vinnie Viola and trained by Todd Pletcher also comes from off the pace, the sort of tactic that has been used by three of the last five Florida Derby winners.

Where closers have had off-and-on success in Florida, speed and favorites have dominated the recent history of the Arkansas Derby (G1), Saturday’s other $1 million points prep that probably should qualify at least the top two finishers to run for the roses May 6.

Florida Derby

Audible in 2018, Known Agenda in 2021 and White Abarrio last year all did what Forte might this weekend. They conceded early ground to rivals and found themselves fifth after two furlongs of the 1 1/8-mile race on their way to come-from-behind wins in Gulfstream’s signature, 3-year-old race.

It is not as if speed cannot win the Florida Derby. Take Charge Indy in 2012, Nyquist in 2016 and Maximum Security in 2019 led at every call, Materiality nearly did in 2015. Constitution in 2014, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Tiz the Law in 2020 stalked the early pace in their victories.

These were the past-performance lines from Equibase charts of the Florida Derby winners since 2000:

Speed, however, has been the byword of the Florida Derby graduates who went on to win at Churchill Downs. Four of the last five had E/P designations in their Quirin Speed Points, emblematic of pace chasers.

These were the 61 horses who ran in both races since 2000, according to the Churchill Downs media guide for the Kentucky Derby:

Even though it has been six years since Always Dreaming last pulled off the Florida-Kentucky derby double, four of the last five years have seen a horse who raced for $1 million at Gulfstream Park go on to finish in the top four at Churchill Downs.

Since the Florida Derby began in 1952, it has produced 34 percent of the ensuing Kentucky Derby winners.

Although five trainers have taken two horses from this race to the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs, Pletcher is trying to become the first to accomplish this double twice. Pletcher has won the Florida Derby race a record six times.

Arkansas Derby

Cyberknife tweaked the recent speed trend when he won last year’s Arkansas Derby. He actually conceded four lengths early before getting within two lengths nearly midway through the 1 1/8-mile race.

Five consecutive winners before that were within two lengths of the lead or in first place at nearly every call. They included gate-to-wire winners Magnum Moon in 2018 and Charlatan in the first division of the oversubscribed COVID year 2020.

This race has been kind to chalk. Favorites won 12 of 18 runnings of the Arkansas Derby between 2004 and 2020. Super Stock at 12-1 two years ago and Cyberknife at 5-1 last year changed that direction.

Some of this year’s entrants look primed to change that recent pattern. Morning-line favorite Reincarnate, Risen Star (G2) winner Angel of Empire and Rebel (G2) runner-up Red Route One are closers. That was the style that dominated the Arkansas Derby from 2009 to 2017, when 7 of 9 victors came from behind.

That was the tactic that worked for Barber Road, who was second to Cyberknife in last year’s Arkansas Derby before he finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby.

Country House and his asterisked promotion to a 2019 victory at Churchill Downs made him the first closer to graduate from the Arkansas Derby to the Louisville winner’s circle since Grindstone in 1996.

Seven Kentucky Derby winners have been spawned by the Arkansas Derby, which began in 1936. Seven horses from the Oaklawn race went on to win the Preakness and four took the Belmont Stakes. Foremost among them was American Pharoah, who used the Hot Springs track as a springboard to the first Triple Crown in 37 years.