Ky. Derby odds: Who follows Essential Quality in the futures?

Ky. Derby odds: Who follows Essential Quality in the futures?

If there is an opposite of recency bias, it might be recency fading. Put another way, the failure to meet expectations drove the futures market as the prep season reached a climax for the Kentucky Derby.

Favorites lost nine of the last 10 points races in the U.S. and Dubai. The only one that won, undefeated Blue Grass Stakes (G2) victor Essential Quality, is a best-priced 7-2 favorite in Las Vegas.

[RELATED: Up to 4 horses could be removed from Ky. Derby consideration]

The other horses that could have challenged for the top betting choice either fell off the trail (Life Is Good), lost as the favorite in a major prep (Concert Tour, Mandaloun, Medina Spirit) or both (Greatest Honour).

As long as he is fit for the Derby with his 5-for-5 record, Essential Quality will be the clear favorite right up to post time around 7 p.m. EDT on May 1. Less certain is how the market will line up behind him.

Florida Derby (G1) winner Known Agenda (5-1) and undefeated turf graduate turned Santa Anita Derby (G1) victor Rock Your World (7-1) are second and third when blending their best prices at Circa Sports and William Hill Nevada.

Then comes a mix of beaten favorites trained by Bob Baffert – Concert Tour (12-1) and Medina Spirit (14-1) – and a pair of upstarts – Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Hot Rod Charlie (12-1) and Blue Grass runner-up Highly Motivated (14-1).

Perhaps forgotten among the other 20 horses listed in the Las Vegas futures is one other undefeated 3-year-old. At 3-for-3, Helium (50-1) goes straight to Louisville off a first-place finish March 6 in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). If he, Essential Quality and Rock Your World all go to the gate, it would be the first time since at least 1915 that the Kentucky Derby had more than two undefeated starters.

Even at this late stage, two horses joined the Nevada futures in the last week. King Fury (175-1) opened at Circa even though his victory in the Lexington Stakes (G3) raised him to only 28th in Derby qualifying. Hockey Dad did not last long in the futures after he finished eighth in the Lexington.

Following are the 27 horses still listed in the Kentucky Derby futures at Circa and William Hill:

Circa    WH

  60-1   70-1 Bourbonic

  44-1   75-1 Caddo River

    8-1   12-1 Concert Tour

  60-1 125-1 Crowded Trade

  85-1 125-1 Dream Shake

  35-1   45-1 Dynamic One

    5-2    7-2 Essential Quality

125-1 125-1 Get Her Number

  50-1   40-1 Helium

  75-1 125-1 Hidden Stash

  10-1   14-1 Highly Motivated

  12-1   10-1 Hot Rod Charlie

150-1           Hozier

175-1           King Fury

    5-1    5-1 Known Agenda

  60-1   85-1 Like the King

  27-1   18-1 Mandaloun

  14-1   14-1 Medina Spirit

  30-1   25-1 Midnight Bourbon

  60-1 125-1 O Besos

  50-1           Panadol

  85-1 100-1 Proxy

    7-1    5-1 Rock Your World

  75-1   75-1 Rombauer

  60-1   75-1 Sainthood

  26-1   32-1 Soup and Sandwich

  43-1   32-1 Super Stock

Top Stories

Baltimore   Pushed back 28 hours because of the me...
Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit will start in...
Trainer Bob Baffert issued the following statement...
Baltimore A couple of trainers wondered how much l...
Baltimore While the sport of racing continues to d...