Kentucky Derby odds: Rebel upset moves futures; 198 are left

Kentucky Derby odds: Rebel upset moves futures; 198 are left
Photo: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority

The transfer of horses from trainer Bob Baffert to Tim Yakteen did not make much of a ripple in the Las Vegas futures for Kentucky Derby 2023. The surprising result of Saturday’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, however, did.

Confidence Game, who was 18-1 to win the Rebel, was cut to odds nearly that short to wear the roses at Churchill Downs on May 6. When bettors took him to as little as 20-1, he went longer again before settling Monday morning at 32-1 at Circa Sports and 26-1 at Caesars Sportsbook.

What we learned: Pace, trip help Confidence Game in Rebel.

Trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by James Graham, the Candy Ride colt who had been 0-for-2 in stakes also had been 100-1 last week at Circa and 65-1 at Caesars.

Red Route One, the 9-1 runner-up in the Rebel, and Reincarnate, who ran third at 9-2, also shortened in the Derby futures. Red Route One, from the Steve Asmussen barn, had his best price cut from 65-1 to 35-1. Reincarnate, who was moved from Baffert to Yakteen last week, went from 50-1 to 30-1.

Verifying, the 3-2 favorite who got caught in traffic at the quarter pole before finishing fourth at Oaklawn, went briefly to 20-1 in Nevada before settling back at his old best price of 30-1.

Arabian Knight, who was among the eight Baffert colts reportedly moved to Yakteen, was cut from 6-1 to 5-1 as the Derby favorite at Caesars. Circa moved him 8-1 to more than 9-1, precisely plus 985, or a potential profit of $9.85 for each $1 bet on him. Baffert, who was suspended by Churchill Downs because of Medina Spirit’s failed drug test in 2021, has until Tuesday to transfer horses and make them eligible for the Derby.

Forte, the Eclipse Award winner who is the 7-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park, was cut to a consensus 7-1 for the Derby. The three-time Grade 1 winner trained by Todd Pletcher had been 9-1 at Caesars. Forte went from 8-1 to plus 750 at Circa, where he became that casino group’s Derby favorite.

Caesars added Oaklawn allowance river Two Eagles River at 125-1, and dropped Saudi Derby (G3) runner-up Havnameltdown, whom Baffert said would be focused on one-turn races. Of the 155 horses on its Derby board, 16 had their odds shortened, and 11 went longer.

Circa thinned its list considerably last week, dropping 32 names and adding seven to leave 130. There were 25 horses whose prices were cut, and the odds drifted for 58 others.

Between the two Nevada bookmakers, 198 names were left in the Derby futures market Monday morning. They are listed here in order of their best prices shown in bold:

Kentucky Derby 2023CaesarsCircaTrainerLast race
Forte    7-1    7-1Todd Pletcher1st Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Arabian Knight     5-1    9-1Tim Yakteen1st Southwest (G3)
Extra Añejo  15-1 Steve Asmussen1st MSW at KEE
Tapit Trice  15-1   13-1Todd Pletcher1st alw OC at GP
Instant Coffee   16-1  17-1Brad Cox1st Lecomte (G3)
Loggins  18-1 Brad Cox2nd Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
Cave Rock   12-1  24-1Bob Baffert2nd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Faustin   16-1  25-1Bob Baffert2nd San Vicente (G2)
National Treasure   20-1  25-1Tim Yakteen3rd Sham (G3)
Blazing Sevens   22-1  30-1Chad Brown4th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Reincarnate   20-1  30-1Tim Yakteen3rd Rebel (G2)
Verifying  30-1  30-1Brad Cox4th Rebel (G2)
Confidence Game   26-1  32-1Keith Desormeaux1st Rebel (G2)
Geaux Rocket Ride  35-1   30-1Richard Mandella1st MSW at SA
Hejazi   30-1  35-1Bob Baffert1st MSW at SA
Red Route One  35-1   25-1Steve Asmussen2nd Rebel (G2)
Signator  35-1 Shug McGaughey1st MSW at BAQ
Angel of Empire  40-1  40-1Brad Cox1st Risen Star (G2)
Awesome Strong  40-1 Jorge Delgado1st Florida Sire In Reality
Hoosier Philly (f)  50-1 Tom Amoss3rd Rachel Alexandra (G2)
Kingsbarns  50-1   40-1Todd Pletcher1st alw OC at TAM
Disarm   50-1  55-1Steve Asmussen2nd alw OC at OP
Hit Show   40-1  55-1Brad Cox1st Withers (G3)
Litigate   32-1  55-1Todd Pletcher1st Sam F. Davis (G3)
Dreamlike   60-1Todd Pletcher2nd MSW at GP
Cyclone Mischief  65-1  65-1Dale Romans7th Holy Bull (G3)
Expect More   65-1Todd Pletcher3rd MSW at GP
Practical Move  65-1   50-1Tim Yakteen1st Los Al Futurity (G2)
Tapit’s Conquest  65-1   30-1Brad Cox4th Risen Star (G2)
Two Phil’s   60-1  65-1Larry Rivelli3rd Risen Star (G2)
Echo Again  75-1 Steve AsmussenDNF Lecomte (G3)
Mage  75-1   65-1Gustavo Delgado1st MSW at GP
Point Proven  75-1   60-1Todd Pletcher4th alw OC at TAM
Skinner   65-1  75-1John Shirreffs1st MSW at SA
Spun Intended  75-1 Mark GlattDNF Sham (G3)
Sun Thunder  75-1   50-1Kenny McPeek2nd Risen Star (G2)
Victory Formation  75-1   50-1Brad Cox9th Risen Star (G2)
Worcester   65-1  75-1Bob Baffert3rd Robert B. Lewis (G3)
Rocket Can  80-1   50-1Bill Mott1st Holy Bull (G3)
Curly Jack  90-1   65-1Tom Amoss8th Risen Star (G2)
Everso Mischievous   90-1Brad Cox2nd MSW at AQU
Banishing   50-1100-1Brendan Walsh5th alw OC at FG
Cagliostro 100-1Cherie DeVaux2nd alw OC at FG
Corona Bolt   75-1100-1Brad Cox6th Southwest (G3)
Crupi100-1   70-1Todd Pletcher7th Risen Star (G2)
Eyeing Clover 100-1Brad Cox1st alw OC at FG
Forbidden Secret100-1 Todd Pletcher1st alw OC at KEE
Giant Mischief   40-1100-1Brad Cox6th Rebel (G2)
Honed100-1 Kenny McPeek6th Street Sense (G3)
Jace’s Road   75-1100-1Brad Cox5th Southwest (G3)
Mo Strike100-1 Brad Cox4th Hopeful (G1)
Post Time100-1 Brittany Russell1st Maryland Juvenile
Slip Mahoney   85-1100-1Brad Cox1st MSW at AQU
Wildatlanticstorm100-1 Ray Ashford1st Springboard Mile
Arabian Lion 100-1125-1Tim Yakteen4th Robert B. Lewis (G3)
Bishops Bay125-1 100-1Brad Cox1st MSW at FG
Capture the Flag125-1 Shug McGaughey1st MSW at SAR
Damon’s Mound125-1 Michelle Lovell6th Iroquois (G3)
Frank’s Honor125-1 Kenny McPeek1st MSW at CD
General Jim 100-1125-1Shug McGaughey1st Swale (G3)
Lost Ark125-1 Todd PletcherDNF Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Mr Fisk   90-1125-1Tim Yakteen1st MSW at SA
Owen’s Leap125-1 Tom Amoss2nd Bashford Manor
Tahoma125-1 Doug O’Neill11th DMR Juv. Turf (G3)
Two Eagles River125-1 100-1Chris Hartman1st alw OC at OP
Communication Memo135-1 Steve Asmussen7th Smarty Jones
Massimo135-1 Bob Baffert1st MSW at DMR
Super Chow135-1 Jorge Delgado2nd Swale (G3)
Bourbon Spirit150-1 Brad Cox9th alw OC at KEE
Carmel Road150-1 125-1Tim Yakteen2nd Los Al Futurity (G2)
Donegal Surges150-1 Todd Pletcher4th Sleepy Hollow
Dubyuhnell 100-1150-1Danny Gargan8th Sam F. Davis (G3)
First Defender150-1150-1Steve Asmussen4th alw OC at FG
Fort Bragg 125-1150-1Tim Yakteen3rd Los Al Futurity (G2)
Gandolfini150-1 Bob Baffert4th American Pharoah (G1)
Giver Not a Taker150-1 Peter Miller2nd Cal Cup Derby
Gold Magic150-1 Kevin Attard1st MSW at GP
Gun Pilot   90-1150-1Steve Asmussen7th Rebel (G2)
Heroic Move150-1 Brad Cox1st MSW at OP
Kingdom Heart150-1 Carlos Muñoz1st MSW at GP
Lord Miles 125-1150-1Saffie Joseph Jr.6th Holy Bull (G3)
Phileas Fogg150-1 Michael Stidham1st MSW at FG
Quick Hammer150-1 Brad Cox5th Bowman Mill
Shadow Dragon 110-1150-1Bill Mott2nd Holy Bull (G3)
Shopper’s Revenge150-1   75-1Steve Asmussen2nd alw OC at OP
Stud Lovin150-1 Mike Maker2nd alw OC at KD
Tapit Shoes 100-1150-1Brad Cox3rd alw OC at FG
Top Recruit150-1 Mike Maker5th Ed Brown
Tuskegee Airmen150-1 John Servis3rd Remsen (G2)
Two of a Kind150-1 Brian Lynch3rd Swale (G3)
X Y Point150-1 Saffie Joseph Jr.4th Limehouse
B Minor175-1 Kenny McPeek7th alw at CD
Cajun Hope175-1 Michael Yates12th Florida Sire In Reality
Classical Cat175-1 Phil D’Amato1st Eddie Logan
Demolition Duke175-1 Brad Cox1st MSW at FG
Funtastic Again 175-1Wesley Ward1st Leonatus (AW) at TP
Gulfport 100-1175-1Steve Asmussen3rd Champagne (G1)
Jackson Heights175-1 Orlando Noda7th NYSS at AQU
Judo175-1 Brad Cox6th alw OC at OP
Light Man175-1 Bruce Levine1st MSW at SAR
Straighten Up175-1 Mike Puype6th Speakeasy
Traffic Master175-1 Mark Casse5th alw OC at CD
Agency200-1 Mark Glatt8th Del Mar Futurity (G1)
American Blaze200-1 Ben Colebrook6th alw OC (AW) at TP
Arthur’s Ride 125-1200-1Bill Mott1st MSW at GP
Classic Legacy 100-1200-1Bill Mott4th Sam F. Davis (G3)
Denington 200-1Kenny McPeek1st alw OC at FG
Divemaster200-1 Wayne Catalano1st MSW at CD
El de Chimi200-1 Juan Carlos Ávila6th Parx Juvenile
Fort Warren   75-1200-1Brittany Russell3rd San Vicente (G2)
Full Moon Madness200-1 Michelle Nevin4th Heft
Game Change 135-1200-1Shug McGaughey1st MSW at GP
Gilmore 135-1200-1Brendan Walsh2nd El Camino Real Derby (AW)
Gran Slash200-1 Víctor Barboza Jr.2nd alw at GP
Harlocap 125-1200-1Steve Asmussen6th Risen Star (G2)
How Did He Do That 200-1Steve Asmussen2nd Riley Allison Derby
Knox200-1 Saffie Joseph Jr.5th alw at GP
Major Dude 175-1200-1Todd Pletcher1st Kitten’s Joy (turf)
Old Alliance200-1 Michael Stidham6th Gun Runner
Roman Giant200-1 Steve Asmussen9th Clever Trevor
Speed Boat Beach   75-1200-1Bob Baffert1st Cecil B. DeMille (G3)
Tres Soles200-1 Steve Asmussen3rd alw OC (turf) at HOU
Uncorrelated 125-1200-1Chad Brown1st MSW at AQU
Arctic Arrogance 100-1225-1Linda Rice2nd Withers (G3)
Canarsie225-1 Todd Pletcher9th Sleepy Hollow
General Banker 225-1Jimmy Ferraro3rd Withers (G3)
Shesterkin 100-1225-1Todd Pletcher2nd alw OC at GP
Apocalypso250-1 Saffie Joseph Jr.6th, alw at GP
Blame It On Daddy250-1 Tom Albertrani7th Sleepy Hollow
Bromley 150-1250-1Paulo Lobo5th Lecomte (G3)
Congruent250-1 Antonio Sano6th Kitten’s Joy (turf)
Hard to Handle (g)250-1 David Fawkes7th, alw at GP
Hurricane J250-1 Paulo Lobo10th alw OC (AW) at TP
Kangaroo Court (g) 150-1250-1Tim Yakteen1st MSW at DMR
Legacy Isle 135-1250-1Rohan Crichton4th Holy Bull (G3)
Lugan Knight 100-1250-1Michael McCarthy1st Jerome
Midnight Trouble250-1 Anthony Pecoraro6th Heft
Mr. Ripple   60-1250-1Saffie Joseph Jr.3rd alw OC at GP
Perrière 250-1Yoichi Kuroiwa1st Hyacinth
Roan Burgundy250-1 Brittany Russell3rd alw OC at LRL
Rolling On250-1 Rohan Crichton6th alw at GP
Sonoran 250-1Bob Baffert1st alw at SA
Swirvin250-1 Saffie Joseph Jr.1st MSW at GP
This Run’s for You250-1 Kathleen O’Connell2nd alw OC at TAM
Arman275-1 Peter Miller6th alw OC at OP
Bourbon Bash 150-1300-1D. Wayne Lukas5th Rebel (G2)
Champions Dream 150-1300-1Danny Gargan11th Sam F. Davis (G3)
Chase the Chaos (g) 110-1300-1Ed Moger1st El Camino Real Derby (AW)
Circling the Drain (g) 300-1Brittany Russell1st alw OC at LRL
Classic Car Wash 300-1Mark Casse3rd Sam F. Davis (G3)
Clubhouse 300-1Todd Pletcher2nd Jimmy Winkfield
Coffeewithchris 300-1John Salzman Jr.1st Miracle Wood
Continuar 300-1Yoshito Yahagi5th Saudi Derby (G3)
Derma Sotogake 300-1Hidetaka Otonashi3rd Saudi Derby (G3)
Determinedly 135-1300-1Mark Casse14th Risen Star (G2)
Dreaming of Kona 300-1Aldana Spieth7th Sam F. Davis (G3)
Event Detail 300-1Paulo Lobo10th Rebel (G2)
Freedom Road 300-1Greg Sacco1st alw OC at TAM
Frosted Departure 150-1300-1Kenny McPeek8th Rebel (G2)
Giroovin 300-1Genaro García5th Riley Allison Derby
Groveland 300-1Eoin Harty2nd Sam F. Davis (G3)
Howgreatisnate 300-1Andy Simoff1st Future Stars
Il Miracolo 300-1Antonio Sano5th Holy Bull (G3)
Invulnerable 300-1Joe Sharp1st alw at FG
Jackstown 100-1300-1Bob Baffert1st MSW at DMR
Jungfrau 125-1300-1Bill Mott6th Withers (G3)
Neural Network 300-1Chad Brown1st Gander
Prairie Hawk 300-1Saffie Joseph Jr.9th Sam F. Davis (G3)
Prince of Jericho 200-1300-1Brittany Russell2nd Miracle Wood
Recruiter 300-1Cathal Lynch1st Parx Juvenile
Ringside 300-1Todd Pletcher3rd MSW at TAM
Rudder’s Men 150-1300-1Todd Pletcher3rd, alw at GP
Scoobie Quando 300-1Ben Colebrook2nd alw OC (AW) at TP
Silver Heist 175-1300-1Steve Asmussen11th Risen Star (G2)
Single Ruler 300-1Keith Desormeaux5th Risen Star (G2)
Sully 300-1John Shirreffs3rd MSW at SA
Tap in Formation300-1 Wayne Catalano6th alw OC at LRL
Ten Days Later 300-1Kenny McPeek6th Smarty Jones
Tigre300-1 Roger Laurin7th Juvenile
Yellow Brick 300-1Richard Mandella3rd MSW at SA
Aaraj 250-1400-1José D’Angelo5th Swale (G3)
Andiamo a Firenze 200-1400-1Kelly Breen4th Withers (G3)
Armstrong 400-1Mark Casse6th Pasco
Baby Billy 400-1Jack Sisterson1st MSW (turf) at GP
Classic Catch 150-1400-1Todd Pletcher3rd alw OC at TAM
Emperor’s Appeal 250-1400-1Brian Lynch5th alw OC at GP
Eyes On the King 250-1400-1Mark Casse11th Mucho Macho Man
Freedom Trail 400-1John Terranova8th Ky. Jockey Club (G2)
Hayes Strike 400-1Kenny McPeek9th Leonatus (AW) at TP
Ohana Honor 400-1Shug McGaughey4th MSW at AQU
Powerful 150-1400-1Steve Asmussen9th Rebel (G2)
Private Creed 400-1Steve Asmussen12th Risen Star (G2)
Protégé 150-1400-1Ron Moquett3rd alw OC at OP
Raise Cain 175-1400-1Ben Colebrook5th Leonatus (AW) at TP
Run Cory Run 400-1Saffie Joseph Jr.1st MSW at TAM
Seeking Unity 400-1Kenny McPeek2nd MSW at OP
Talladega 400-1Rodolphe Brisset11th Rebel (G2)
Turbo 125-1400-1Juan Alvarado2nd Limehouse
(f) filly - (g) gelding   

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