At their morning-line prices, Practical Move (10-1) and Lord Miles (30-1) represented 10.1 percent of the win pool. The contenders who took their places, Cyclone Mischief (30-1) and Mandarin Hero (20-1), represent 6.5 percent of the win pool, meaning there is 3.6 percent up for grabs among the other 18 starters.
Where will that money go? Angel of Empire has been a hot horse all week and is likely to come down from his morning-line price. That is good news for my opinion on the race because a horse I already thought was an underlay is now even more so.
What makes the calculus tricky, however, is both Cyclone Mischief and Mandarin Hero look to offer value relative to their morning line. From a wagering perspective, I'm inclined to ditch my bottom tier of contenders such as Rocket Can and Sun Thunder and more narrowly focus on Tapit Trice, Skinner, Disarm and now Mandarin Hero.
With Tapit Trice I'll still fold in horses such as Rocket Can and Sun Thunder, but I'm more interested in getting one of the other three in the number and could even stomach the favorite Forte winning under those circumstances.
Thankfully, the Ron Flatter Racing Podcast Kentucky Derby hard-core handicapper podcast touched on every entrant, even the also-eligibles.