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Breeders' Cup 2017

Longshot I've Struck a Nerve Scores in Risen Star

Horse Racing proved once again that the long shot isn’t racing just for fun. At 135-1 I’ve Struck a Nerve, with James Graham aboard, pulled off the upset in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds Race Course. 

The son of Yankee Gentleman and Ranaway had to overcome more than just the odds in today's triumph. Facing a very tough field of 13 the first time stakes winner also had to maneuver from 12th place to 1st. But, they did it and the victory now makes I’ve Struck a Nerve your 2013 Kentucky Derby Points leader with 51 points.
Out of the gate there was a noticeable bobble by the post time favorite Normandy Invasion. The slow start put him well behind a field that was being led through sharp fractions out front. Through the first quarter mile Proud Strike with Gary Stevens in the irons was in the lead as they zipped through in :23.92. Right to his outside was Code West followed by Agent.
Between this point in the race and the next split is where Jon Court began to call on Oxbow. The move from 5th to 3rd left him only one length behind Code West who had passed Proud Strike. The split at the half mile maker was :48.34.
From here Oxbow continued to pursue the lead and eventually took it over before the ¾ mile pole. The pace stayed hot at 1:12.74 and it was now Oxbow’s race to lose. At the top of the stretch he was still in front but he was beginning to feel the heat as Palace Malice began to challenge and Code West refused to quit.
Once they hit the final furlong is when the long shot came charging from out of nowhere. To make it happen he had to rally six wide through the final turn but he still had more than enough left. With Palace Malice to his inside he drove gamely by him all the way down to the wire. The effort also withstood an admirable second effort by Code West along the rail.
The photo and final charts gave I’ve Struck a Nerve the win by a nose. The final time was clocked in 1:44.52. And how about these numbers; at 135-1 the pay out was large.
Pgrm #HorseWin Place Show
8I've Struck a Nerve$272.40$110.60$42.40
2Code West $8.80$5.60
6Palace Malice  $4.60
 $2 Trifecta17,787.60  
 $2 Exacta2,295.00  
Trained by Keith Desormeaux and Owned by Big Chief Racing the unlikely Kentucky Derby contender could now be considered a lock for the 139th Kentucky Derby. After he scored 1 point with a 4th place finish in the Lecomte Stakes, today’s win brings him up to 51. Code West (20 points), trained by Bob Baffert, and Palace Malice (10 points), trained by Todd Pletcher, both scored for the very first time.
After the race Keith Desormeaux stated that their intentions are to keep I’ve Struck a Nerve in Louisiana and that he will return to race at the Fair Grounds in the G2 Louisiana Derby on March 30th. Congratulations to I’ve Struck a Nerve and all of the connections as this was the first Risen Star Stakes win for all three.
Down but not out
Unfortunately, a few entries in the Risen Star Stakes that were considered viable contenders for the win, and the Kentucky Derby top 20, came up empty handed. The two that standout the most are Normandy Invasion and Oxbow.
As mentioned, Normandy Invasion had a very tough task ahead of him after the slow start. Although, he was confident enough to regroup and make a solid run towards the end, it was not enough to finish inside the top four. So, Normandy Invasion and his connections will have to decide what their next move is from here. Hopefully they will push ahead and race into the same fortunes that I’ve Struck a Nerve did today; a probable birth into the 139th Kentucky Derby.
As for Oxbow, Bluegrass Hall and D. Wayne Lukas they too will have to hope for an improved result next time out if they still hope to make the Kentucky Derby field. Although he finished fourth and earned and an additional 5 points there is still much work left to be done. He does however fare better than Normandy Invasion in points (16 to 6) but both horses will need to finish no worse than 2nd place their next time out. If so, they will gain an additional 40 points which will likely be enough to make it into the top 20.
If they win they’ll have 100 points awarded to them and jump from the Kentucky Derby bubble to a potential Kentucky Derby winner. As proven in the Risen Star Stakes, a win almost guarantees you an entry into the Kentucky Derby. So, missing out today is a tough break but the trail continues and the chance to make the starting gate is still within reach. 


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Older Comments about Longshot I've Struck a Nerve Scores in Risen Star...

Official teletimer photo order of finish.... http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151509383320908&l=a3817a6077
Hey Lookinatlucky859 - You have a valid point. I guess I should have clairified my statement better. O.K. Any horse in the derby with odds higher then 20-1 put a WPS bet on them. All of them with the long odds. Then you take a madman like Calvin and Bam! am I making any sense?
ISAN was six wide coming round that corner, I think we have to respect that effort, top jock or not, not many horses pull that off.
With a blanket finish, this race did nothing to point to a clear derby contender. For those who still like Normandy Invasion, he better learn to leave the gate or he'll do as well as Dullahan in a twenty horse field.
still better watch NORMANDY INVASION......
yeah should have been 5-1 6-1. i bet last time to and was shocked his opening odds were 99-1.
Got to love the Big Easy, two 100-1 plus stakes horses two years in a row. And by the way, I could go out to Staples, buy a cheap computer video camera, tape it to the finish line and get it to work. How come tracks don't put a freakin' camera on the finish line???
of course they said that about Assault and Canonero as well.
quote: I just watched the replay and on one angle ISaN looks like a clear winner, but on another angle not so much. THAT is why the photo camera is right on the line. In front of the line visual parallax favors the rail horse and behind the line the outside horse.
I just watched the replay and on one angle ISaN looks like a clear winner, but on another angle not so much.
I've Struck a Nerve -- 95 BSF
Very disappointed in Normandy Invasion's performance regardless of any stumble at the start. He did not look impressive coming down the stretch.
Don't see any reason he should've have been 135-1, amdaman. Lost to 4 of his Risen Star rivals, 3 he wasn't even remotely close to. Well beaten in all 3 2 turn races. I see no logical reason to have had him WP. I could see your point if you were saying he could've been part of the verticals, but to say you can't see how so many people discounted him to win is beyond me. Congrats if you really had him, but what logic can you argue for that, really?
I'm still not sure Code West did not win.
  • lookinatlucky859 · they never did show a photo brian im like you i thought he held on the pan angle at fairgrounds isnt at the wire. it is what it is i get beat like this all the time · 1699 days ago
I'm with you Zipse. Does anyone have a link that has the photo result? Haven't seen the official photo yet.
hey furlonger you say to bet the jock in the derby usually you have the best riders in the country how do you know which one to bet? at keeneland in the big races you have the best riders we got your not make any sense on who to bet
@furlonger-There are a few people on here that swear the jock makes no difference on a horse and it's all the horse in each race. Ludicrous staements and thoughts by some on here.
Didn't deserve to be 135-1. Didn't deserve to be 30-1 last time out either. I bet him WP both times.
  • amdaman · I'm not gloating. Just didn't realize that hitting the back button on the browser would cause a comment to be re-posted. · 1699 days ago
Didn't deserve to be 135-1. Didn't deserve to be 30-1 last time out either. I bet him WP both times.
And secondly and finally, for all of you out there who are betting on these races? My one word of advice is..Stakes, bet the Jock. Derby...Bet the Jock. Except for post 1
  • lookinatlucky859 · hey furlonger congrats on that wonderful pick i didnt read your picks or i would have hit the pic 4 (i bet i do next time) im 30 minutes from keeneland and james graham tore them up last meet · 1699 days ago
  • lookinatlucky859 · hey furlonger i see you like leandro i know his old agent personally(jimmy macnerney) he tears up indiana downs only a 45 minute ride from me im in kentucky right across the river from cincinnati · 1699 days ago

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