Race of the Week 2017

It's all Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby

#9 Overanalyze with Rafael Bejarano aboard crossing the finish line in the Arkansas Derby 2013. April 13, 2013 - Hot Springs, Arkansas, U.S - (Credit Image: © Justin Manning/Eclipse/ZUMAPRESS.com)Arkansas Derby Day 2013. April 13, 2013 - Hot Springs, Arkansas, U.S - (Credit Image: © Justin Manning/Eclipse/ZUMAPRESS.com)
After flattening out in Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes last time, Overanalyze was in need of a bounce-back performance in today’s Arkansas Derby to avoid being stuck on the couch on the first Saturday in May. With both the race favorite, War Academy, and the second choice, Oxbow, throwing in disappointing performances, Overanalyze was more than happy to take advantage in one of racing’s premier Kentucky Derby preps. Storming down the stretch in front of a large Oaklawn Park crowd, the son of Dixie Union pulled away from the rest to win the $1 million race with authority. 
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Overanalyze was content to sit in the middle pack, and on the outside, as Divine Ambition and Falling Sky carved out moderate early fractions. Always looking comfortable, rider Rafael Bejarano kept his charge on the outside and began moving up on the far turn. It looked like it might be anybody’s race as the field careened off the far turn, but Overanalyze was just beginning to get going. By the time the Arkansas Derby field hit the eighth pole, he had taken the lead, and from there it was a one horse race, going on to win by 4 ¼ lengths. Frac Daddy won the race for second, with Carve, Falling Sky and Oxbow not far behind him.
An objection after the race by Victor Lebron aboard Frac Daddy seemed optimistic at best, and was quickly dismissed by the stewards.
The happy winning jockey had this to say about Overanalyze after the race, “My horse broke really good. I placed him right behind the early speed because I didn't want to rush him. At the half-mile pole, He started to chase the horses on the lead and he kicked clear," said Bejarano. "I had a beautiful trip. Once we got to the stretch, I felt like I had a lot of horse left and saved something for the next race."
While the winning margin may have looked good, Overanalyze’s final time was nothing to write home about. 1:51.94 is the slowest Arkansas Derby in 35 years, and by way of comparison, the good four-year-old, Cyber Secret ran more than two seconds faster while winning the Oaklawn Handicap in 1:49.67 a few races earlier on the card.
For his never shy owner, Mike Repole, it will now be on to Louisville, where he’ll also have his unbeaten filly, Unlimited Budget in the Kentucky Oaks, which should ensure his large entourage has a strong rooting interest on both big days at Churchill Downs.
And for the ubiquitous Pletcher, Overanalyze joins an already strong roster that includes Verrazano, Revolutionary, as well as Palace Malice, who just missed winning the Blue Grass Stakes earlier in the afternoon to Java’s War.
As for the two race favorites … War Academy was pulled up on the backstretch by Hall of Fame rider, Mike Smith. The horse did, however, walk off the track on his own after the race. His trainer, Bob Baffert, tweeted after the race, “Mike Smith says War Academy fine after he bobbled down the backside.” Oxbow, unable to get good position from his far outside post, was shuffled back early and appeared not to appreciate the dirt being kicked up in his face. He did shift to the outside again for the stretch run and finished with good energy, but could do no better than fifth place.


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Older Comments about It's all Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby ...

Unless a horse is in first at all calls final race time is very overrated. In this case, Overanalyze can't control how weak or strong the pace horses are, and is content to site behind a soft pace until time to draw off and, as Bejarano said, save some for the next race.
None at HRN seem bothered Overanalyze - Has never won two consecutive starts.Arkansas Derby, the 1:51 4/5 seconds that Overanalyze ran that 1 1/8-mile in the slowest winning time since 1978, and Orb, who some consider the probable second choice behind Verrazano, ran the third-slowest Florida Derby in the last 20 years.
The biggest suprise for m was Frac Daddy. I never liked this horse. I guess I was wrong but maybe the race was so slow even a "less than average" horse could run a good race and hit the board. He killed my superfecta and ALMOST killed my Pick 4
Have a good one Marry Z.
per Ark derby time only means something when your in jail that tack is putridly slow
Verrazano, my only future wager. At this point, I also like Revolutionary. Longer shot I like is Black Onyx. I have to be off now, too. GL today, gelded1.
I had to step away from the computer for a bit or I would have responded sooner.Who is your early Derby pick? Verrazano looks smooth but he will be the favorite.
I always thought he was a good one just a bit inconsistent as you know already.
Good idea, gelded 1, the re-grouping. About Justin Phillip, it's been somewhat frustrating being a fan of his. Seems that he should have several more wins but just missed, sometimes in painfully close losses or has had bad luck. I used to think he liked an off track better, but I no longer think that, not just due to his latest win. Maybe he's just quirky.
I bet him last out $40.00 win .He has been very game his year. I didn't bet any preps this weekend . Bet Justin Phillip as my play of the day yesterday and I see you liked him and 1 bet Fri as play of the day Courtly Fler as play of the day. I took a small break to regroup as I had been not picking many winners so stepped back a bit to reload and rethink.
Yes, Az Ridge is doing quite well at that track. Just beat Cali shipper Nextdoorneighbor last month. I'll try to find out what minor stakes are coming up that he might enter, gelded1. Surprised a little that his odds haven't been even lower. No money made, since no wagers yesterday, but possibly today, either Keeneland's Beaumont, also the allowance r3, or Santa Anita, leaning towards Santa Anita's 8th race, #6.
@ Mary Z.- How's it going? Did you make any money on the preps yesterday? This is off subject but I was wondering if you looked at that 4yo that I told you about a month or 2 ago running in your backyard at Turf Paradise by the name of AZ RIDGE? He has won his last 2 and is in the money 3/3 this year. Looks like he will have a good season if he stays in the right class. He may be able to step up as he has ran a couple of very game races and won both at short odds. Just wondering if you remembered to check him out.
Congrats all around.
Oh>>In that case, you’ll recall me telling rafirox that Palace Malice was in the Bluegrass because Todd and Repole had the Arkansas Derby covered and telling ajump08 I liked his(?) thinking re: Frac Daddy which resulted in an exacta which returned over 96-1. Those exotics really make the profits add up fast.
Way to go tv. You don't often post wagering results(and readers he posted no dollar amounts) after the race, certainly not multiple times, daily. Molest away. It would be a dull Sunday otherwise ;)
I promoted the horse PRE-RACE and modified the wager, based upon what the odds board gave me...AN ENORMOUS difference. A single reference to a particlar situation, not a daily exercise in fallacy.
Way to go travel_vic>>the change from unloading on Overanalyze to making a bigger bet (I thought unloading implied a huge bet all on it's own) is a nice touch. It would be nice if you would allow others the same courtesy of announcing their wagers after the race unquestioned and unmolested.
UPDATE -- Overanalyze gets an 88 BSF.
Overanalyze was the best bet of the day, overlay wise. Would have unloaded at 5/2 but the final odds being what they were, a larger wager was the name of the game...Bigger advantage you have over real probability and what the crowd's estimate is, you are in heaven parimutuelly.
All the preps were doged affairs

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