How to bet Churchill's closing-day Pick 6 with mandatory payout

How to bet Churchill's closing-day Pick 6 with mandatory payout
Photo: Ron Flatter

Racing concludes at Churchill Downs for the year on Sunday, meaning mandatory payouts in multi-race wagers. Going in to Saturday's card, the Pick 6 carryover was $14,368.41. Typically the wager has a jackpot rule, though on closing day the entire pool pays out even if there is no unique winning ticket. This makes it ripe for an overlay.

Click here for Churchill Downs entries and results.

The sequence begins in race 7, which features the hottest predicted pace on the card. According to the Pace Report, these two-year-old fillies should be flying early. No. 4 Peacock Lass (5-2 morning line) is the anticipated speed of the speed. 

Race 8 will be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track, which has played kindly to the inside lately. The Post Position Bias Report shows that over the last 25 races, post position 1 is winning at 32 percent.

Although it is possible to find the winner's circle from outer gates, the inside portion of the track is a beneficial place to be. This is good news for No. 1 Midnight Raid (7-2). 

In race 9, the Sire Moves Report highlights a long shot that should benefit from a change in surface and distance. No. 2 Dame Joviale (20-1) is a daughter of Runhappy who has yet to sire a winner routing on a turf course with some give in it. Dame Joviale's last start came at 1 1/16 miles over good turf. Runhappy's offspring have more success in dirt sprints, which Dame Joviale switches to here. 

A jockey who has been overperforming considering the odds of their mounts is Luan Machado, who is on a price in race 10. Riding No. 2 Gagetown (15-1), Machado is currently winning at 12 percent, according to the Jockey Report

Based on the expected win rate of his mounts, Machado has been a great bet. His HRN Impact score is +80 percent, as his expected win rate is 7 percent from a limited sample size. 

The top Power Pick in race 11 is a long shot in No. 7 Actuator (15-1). Over the past two weeks, Power Picks are winning at 26.5 percent at Churchill Downs. Actuator, winner of the Indiana Derby (G3), switches surfaces to turf.

In the finale, the lone debut runner is No. 11 Patou Road (8-1). First-Timer Power Ratings rank this horse as a three on a one-to-five scale, with five being best. Horses with a ranking of three are winning 8.3 percent of the time. This may be one to watch for now and bet second time out.

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