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Breeders' Cup 2017

How to Win $5,000 on the Belmont Stakes

2011 Belmont Stakes logo.

The big race day is coming up and everyone would like to put some extra cash in the pocket.  But what about the big score?  Saturday’s Belmont Stakes could be just that ticket.  This is the type of race you could win $1,000 or even $5,000.  That’s something I’ve done many times before and I’m going to show you just how to do it. 


What wagers paid well in past Belmonts?
A quick glance at the last 10 Belmont Stakes shows us this is a wide open race.  In 3 of the last 10 Belmont Stakes, a huge longshot has blown up the payoffs.  Da’ Tara (38-1), Birdstone (36-1) and Sarava (70-1) keyed big trifecta payoffs of $3,703, $1,589 and $25,209 respectively, and massive superfecta payoffs of $47,309, $11,679 and $145,334.  Wow.  Just think, that has happened 30% of the time.












The favorites did win 3 of 10 runnings as well, but even that doesn’t have to dampen the payoffs.   When Afleet Alex beat 10 others in 2005 as a virtual lock at 1-1, the trifecta still came back as a healthy $1,249 and the super was a giant $14,219. 


Winning Belmont running styles 
You often hear people say that because the Belmont Stakes is run at 1 ½ miles, it is a closer's race.  But this is not necessarily true.  If we consult the 2011 Belmont Stakes Super Screener
, Rule #3 is Off the Pace Makes the Race, because the best place to win the Belmont from is mid-pack.  Here's how the past 16 winners of the Belmont Stakes breakdown based on Energy Distribution Profiles observed in races leading up to the Belmont:

On the lead = 1
Right behind the lead = 1
Mid-pack = 10
Back of the pack closer = 4
Total Winners = 16

So, 14 of the past 16 Belmont Stakes winners were either mid-pack or closer types but the vast majority coming from the former.

Applying this criteria to this year’s field, we find three interesting longshots that are mid-pack runners:
#1 Master of Hounds 10-1
#5 Santiva 15-1
#8 Prime Cut 15-1


Wagering Strategies - What if the Derby winner wins?
The Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom will be the favorite and clearly has a big shot here.  First, let’s be prepared if he wins to cash some nice tickets.  The only thing is, if he wins, we will need some other longshots to bring up the price, so we will design our tickets to focus on longshots with the Derby winner.


  1. $1 Trifecta  9 with 1-4-5-8 with 1-4-5-8 = $12 cost; Could pay about $400-$600.
  2. $1 Trifecta  9 with 1-4-5-8 with 1-4-5-6-8-10-12 = $24 cost; Could pay $200-$400.
  3. $1 Superfecta 9 with 6-12 with 1-4-5-8 with 1-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12 = $48; Could pay $1,000 up to $2,500.


All together these tickets cost $84.  But the best value is ticket #1 (so you may want to bet that a couple extra times), and now for around $100 you have a lot of potential to cash for $1,000. 


What if one of the longshots wins or runs well?
In this case, we’ll focus on #1 Master of Hounds and #4 Santiva winning, but also give us some options if they run second.


  1. $1 Trifecta 1-4 with 1-4-6-8-9-12 with 1-4-5-6-8-9-10-12 = $60 cost; Could pay $300 to $3,000.
  2. $2 Trifecta 1-4 with 9-12 with 1-4-5-6-8-9-10-12 = $48 cost; Could pay $300 to $1,500.
  3. $1 Trifecta 5-6 with 1-4 with 1-4-5-6-8-9-10-12 = $24 cost; Could pay $1,500 to $4,000.


Now we are getting somewhere.  Here are some very possible tickets that could lead to some juicy payoffs.  Only $132 to bet them all.


We can also try for a home run Superfecta assuming one of our longshots runs first or second with either the Derby or Preakness winner.


  1. $1 Super 9 with 1-4 with 1-4-5-6-8-9-10-12 with 1-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12 = $72 cost; Could pay $1,500 to $5,000. 
  2. $1 Super 1-4 with 9-12 with 1-4-5-6-8-9-12 with 1-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-12 = $120 cost; Could pay $2,000 to $7,500.


Now, these two superfectas clearly go for the gusto, but they have major potential to put us in line for that $5,000 score.


What if our longshots run third or fourth? 
Finally, one of the most frequent scenarios in racing is for big longshots to run third or fourth.  Here we are clearly hoping to get lucky a bit, but we are leveraging the fact that this is a wide open race as history has shown, and people tend to over-bet the favorites and underestimate the chances of longshots to run third or fourth. 


  1. $1 Trifecta 1-4-5-6-9 with 1-4-5-6-8-9-12 with 4-5-8 = $65 cost; Could pay $200 to $3,000
  2. $.50 Super 1-4-9 with 1-4-6-9-12 with 1-4-5-6-8-9-10-12 with 4-5-7-8 = $111; Could pay $1,000 to $7,500.


Here are two more tickets that get us a chance for a major score.  We just need the #4, #5 or #8 to run a decent race in third or fourth, or the #7 in fourth.  The first two finishers can be quite logical.


Putting it all together
As you can see, the possibilities are wide open and that’s what makes horse racing the greatest game and challenge out there.  Please keep in mind the payoff estimates are just that and  they cover a wide range.  With any ticket, the bigger the longshots that come in on your ticket, the more it will pay.

  
If you are looking to wager on the Belmont Stakes, I highly recommend getting an account with TVG.  It’s free, licensed and 100% legal.  They even have a deal where you can get $150 back free.  


And if you’re looking for more tips on the Belmont, you need to check out the 2011 Belmont Stakes Super Screener.


Good Luck! 


Mark Midland - Horse Racing Nation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Older Comments about How to Win $5,000 on the Belmont Stakes...

This is some pretty amazing analysis, I'm very impressed! I was really surprised at how well it worked for the Preakness.

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