Horak: How I'm betting Parx's 2019 Cotillion Stakes

September 20, 2019 03:00pm

Seven graded stakes winners square off in a loaded renewal of the Grade 1, $1 million Cotillion Stakes on Saturday at Parx Racing. Sunny skies are expected with high temperatures in the upper 80s. The Cotillion is the 10th race with an approximate post time of 5:14 p.m. ET. Before covering some recommended plays, let's analyze the field.


The Favorite

#8 Guarana (9-5) is 3-for-3 for Chad Brown. She was very good in her first two starts, and was not nearly as impressive in a one-length victory in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) on July 21. That was a mile and an eighth event last time at Saratoga, and this shorter distance helps. The fresh filly owns early-pressing versatility.

Value Win Contender

#3 Street Band (8-1) might be the right one from a value standpoint. She does some of her best work at this distance (both graded wins at 8.5 furlongs), and her stalking speed should lead to a nice trip. She just missed the place in the Alabama (G1) at a mile and a quarter in the slop Aug. 17 and she cuts back in her third start after a layoff.

Live Longshot

#6 Horologist (15-1) won her last four starts, including the Monmouth Oaks (G3). The New Jersey-bred filly should be forwardly placed in her toughest career test. I like her early-pressing versatility.

Remaining Entrants

#1 Serengeti Empress (7-2) is probably the speed of the speed from the rail. She was a decent juvenile but is much faster and more reliable this year. 

#2 Afleet Destiny (30-1) adds blinkers after failing to crack the top three in her last seven starts. She is not fast enough to threaten these.   

#4 Jeltrin (12-1) controlled the pace and had plenty left in the tank in the local stakes prep for this Sept. 2. These are much tougher, and she won’t see the early lead in this affair.

#5 Collegeville Girl (20-1) stretches out and is one of several fillies with speed. She gets a big distance and class test.

#7 She Makes Me Smile (50-1) is 0-for-5 at Parx and looks overmatched in this race.

#9 Sweet Sami D (20-1) ran well in her last four starts, and she was an okay third in the Monmouth Oaks last time. She has some ability but is probably a cut or two below the top contenders in this event. 

#10 Bellafina (6-1) puts blinkers back on and will probably attend the pace under Flavien Prat. The six-time graded winner is 0-for-3 outside California.

#11 Jaywalk (6-1) added blinkers and ran off the screen in the Delaware Oaks (G3) on July 6, but that was the only time she really showed top form this year. She figures to be aggressively handled from the outside post.

Wagering Strategies

#3 to Win

Exacta Box 3-8

Trifecta 3-8/3-6-8/ALL

Trifecta Key 3/1-6-8-10

 

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