Horak: How I'm betting Del Mar's Hollywood Derby

November 29, 2019 02:27pm

Saturday's Hollywood Derby (G1) is a great betting race with Neptune’s Storm a tepid 9-2 favorite and six others at 6-1 or less on the morning line.

New York shippers have captured the last three editions. Chad Brown trained two of those winners, and he has entered a pair this year.

Before deciding how to bet Saturday’s eighth race at Del Mar, carded as Race 8 at 6:33 p.m. ET, let’s meet the field.

 

Favorite


#5 Neptune’s Storm (9-2) is a very consistent turf router with tactical speed. He drew well and owns two stakes wins at this distance.


Value Win Contenders 


#4 Digital Age (6-1) won his first three starts at one mile and 8.5 furlongs, and dropped his last four at longer distances. He has had some uncomfortable trips but can compete with these on his best day. He runs well fresh and will try to get involved late for Javier Castellano and Brown.


#6 Nolde (6-1) was uncomfortable and never got involved in the Twilight Derby (G2) last time. I will draw a line through that race. His other four turf starts were stellar, including a victory in the Nov. 2 Del Mar Derby (G2) at this course/distance.


Live Longshots


#10 Moody Jim (6-1) rallied to win two of his last three turf routes in Southern California, and was only beaten a couple of lengths vs. some of these in the Del Mar Derby. Flavien Prat rides back.


#13 Succeedandsurpass (12-1) improved his numbers in all four turf routes in California. He rallied for the place in the Twilight Derby and will have to work out a trip from a tough post under Rafael Bejarano. 


Remaining Entrants


#1 Mo Forza (5-1) exits back-to-back turf route wins at Santa Anita. Peter Miller’s improving colt owns fine tactical speed, and he made the grade from the outside post in the Twilight Derby. 


#2 Kingly (20-1) figures to play catch me if you can. He went all the way in the local La Jolla (G3) on Aug. 4 but came up short in the stretch in his last three starts against this kind. 


#3 Uncle Bull (20-1) exits back-to-back Woodbine wins versus lesser. He should be forwardly placed.


#7 Proud Pedro (30-1) lost a heartbreaker in the restricted Let It Ride on Nov. 9. He graduated at this distance and will try to get involved late in his toughest class test to date. 


#8 Henley’s Joy (6-1) upset the Belmont Derby (G1) on July 6 but has been a bit flat in four starts since. He can stalk or close, and his new rider Drayden Van Dyke should have options. 


#9 Standard Deviation (6-1) is the second Brown runner here. He captured a couple of non-graded turf races at 8.5 furlongs this year and exits a solid third in the Hill Prince (G2). He probably wants more ground and/or easier company.


#11 Mr Dumas (30-1) was victorious in his last two turf routes, including the Commonwealth Turf (G3) on Nov. 9 at Churchill Downs.


#12 Originaire (20-1) rallied to miss by a neck in the Del Mar Derby, but did not have the same late kick in his last pair. He is 0-for-4 at a mile and an eighth. 


Wagers


#6 to win


Quinella 4-6


Exacta 4-6/10-13


Superfecta 4-6/4-5-6/ALL/4-5-6-10-13

 

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