Horak: How I’m betting the Maryland Million Classic

October 18, 2019 12:13pm

The Maryland Million Classic drew an overflow field of fourteen. The 2019 renewal is wide open, especially with three of the more highly regarded runners stuck on the also-eligible list. Before deciding how to bet Laurel Park’s tenth race on Saturday, October 19, let’s meet the entire field. 

Laurel Park Race 10 - Maryland Million Classic - 9 furlongs - Post Time 4:30 p.m. ET

The Favorites


#4 Clubman (2-1) can handle a route of ground but currently seems most effective as a late running sprinter. The 6-time local winner reconnects with his winning rider Julian Pimentel. He is 0-for-3 at this distance, and this is his third Maryland Million Classic appearance. He was 4th in the 2017 Classic and 3rd in 2018. 

AE #12 Cordmaker (7-5) is the first also-eligible list. He is 6-for-12 at Laurel and rates a very big look if he draws in. He captured three stakes races this year and almost got there in the Pimlico Special (G3) May 17. 

AE #13 Top Line Growth (5-2) needs two defections to get into the body of the race. The lightly raced 3-year-old gelding is 3-for-3 at Laurel. 

AE #14 Bonus Points (5-2) is a decent late runner with an affinity for Laurel Park. He probably won’t get in. 

Value Win Contenders

#7 Forest Fire
 (6-1) exits back-to-back optional claiming scores vs. PA-bred foes at Parx. He ran well in both starts at Laurel last year including a runner-up finish in the Private Terms Stakes. He should be forwardly placed under Paco Lopez. 


#11 Torch of Truth (6-1) was claimed for $40,000 by Jamie Ness Aug. 22, and he stretched out and ran well in his last two starts under Saturday's rider Trevor McCarthy. He was clearly second best as the heavy favorite Oct. 6, and should get pace to chase. 


Live Longshots


#8 Tappin Cat (10-1) is a consistent, improving sophomore sprinter. His longest effort was a distant place finish at one mile. He stretches out three furlongs and has some distance influences in his pedigree, but is 0-for-4 at Laurel.


#10 Do that Dance (20-1) is 0-for-5 at Laurel, and the surface switcher is 1-for-12 on dirt. He has dropped seven straight and will try to get involved late. He almost upset this event last year, and a minor award is not impossible, especially if the pace heats up. 


Remaining Entrants


#1 Saratoga Bob (9-2) is the defending champion making his first start since June. He returns to dirt and should be forwardly placed from the rail, but has dropped four straight and six of his last seven. 


#2 Legend’s Hope (30-1) was beaten double digits in his last pair. He is 0-for-2 at this distance, and he was 6th in this race last year. 


#3 Prendimi (8-1) stretched back out and rallied for the place in an optional claiming event at Monmouth Sept. 22. This race might be too far for him. 


#5 Crouchelli (30-1) won a restricted allowance event to begin 2019, but has dropped seven straight since. He is 2-for-21 overall.  


#6 Tattooed (15-1) was in pretty good form from December 2018 thru August 2019. He tailed off in his last pair and is coming into this race the wrong way.


#9 Trifor Gold (15-1) is 0-for-10 this year and remains eligible for an entry level allowance event. He should attend the pace. 


Wagers


#11 to win


exacta 11/4-7-8


exacta 4-7-8/11


trifecta 4-7-8/1-4-7-8-10/11

 

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