Horak: 4 live longshots on Saturday's Lecomte Stakes card

January 17, 2020 01:34pm

Saturday's Lecomte Stakes day card at Fair Grounds is full of value. And on afternoons like this, one of the first things I do when handicapping is search for longshot contenders to play in the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta. I've found a few runners worth betting here, so let's look to cash at a price...

Race 2: Duncan F. Kenner
6 furlongs; 1:29 p.m. ET

Live Longshot: #5 Pete’s Play Call (6-1)

A field of five is scheduled to go in this dirt sprint stakes affair. Looking at the field, we have two front runners, one stalker and two closers. Pete’s Play Call is the stalker, and he might sit a great outside trip behind dueling front runners. Mike Maker claimed him last September, and he exits a local stakes victory in the slop. The 7-year-old gelding is sharp and worth a play if the morning line holds up. 

Race 9: Marie G. Krantz Memorial
8.5 furlongs turf; 4:52 p.m. ET

Live Longshot: #3 Don’t Tell Marge (15-1)

Notapradaprice is probably the one to beat at a distance she enjoys. She is 4-1 on the line and that price is only going down. Don’t Tell Marge is worth considering at long odds, however, and I especially like her chances underneath. She exits a good third at this course and distance. In that optional claiming affair on Dec. 5, she rallied wide from post 10, and winner Zofelle returned to capture the Dec. 28 Pago Hop Stakes. She has dropped nine straight, and that is why I like her only to finish on the board.   

Race 11: Colonel E.R. Bradley Handicap
8.5 furlongs turf; 5:52 p.m. ET

Live Longshot: #10 Parlor (10-1) 

Morning line favorite Mr. Misunderstood is stuck in post 14 but should move in a few spots after scratches. He is sharp and has a nose for the wire, so I have no real knocks on the chalk. Parlor might be another dangerous one for Maker. He has had success with his claims in the stakes ranks, and the 6-year-old gelding has some back class with six trifecta finishes in stakes races. A small win bet and an exacta box with the favorite is a good place to start, unless this one completely falls apart due to weather. I will also key him in third in the trifecta. 

Race 12: Silverbulletday Stakes
1 mile 70 yards; 6:23 p.m. ET

Live Longshot: #1 Tempers Rising (10-1)

This is a Kentucky Oaks prep, and horses from Fair Grounds always seem to be dangerous on the first Friday in May. Finite is the strong favorite and for good reason. She has never finished out of the exacta and has won three straight. She can set the pace or stalk. If the favorite stubs her toe, Portrait is the likely beneficiary for the Brad Cox barn. She is lightly raced with plenty of upside. His Glory is the other logical win contender, and she has a shot if she can control the pace. For exotics purposes, I like late runner Tempers Rising for Dallas Stewart. She ran well in all five maiden starts and appears to be getting better. She does not look like a serious win threat, but a place finish is a definite possibility.  

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