History favors closers in 2 of 3 Kentucky Derby points races

Saturday’s points preps might be worth a short look to cash now. But historically speaking, when it comes to finding a winner for Kentucky Derby 2023, fuhgeddaboudit.

Since the Withers (G3) was moved from spring to winter at Aqueduct in 2012, it never has graduated a Derby winner. Neither has the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Ever. It is 0-for-42, the longest such drought of any current points prep.

The El Camino Real Derby did spawn a Kentucky Derby winner once. That was Charismatic in 1999. That was before the race lost its Grade 3 status in 2018. Before Bay Meadows was shut down, forcing a move from the dirt of San Mateo to the Tapeta at Golden Gate Fields in 2009. It has been nine years since the race last produced a Kentucky Derby starter.

For the short term, two of these races have been kind to closers. One has rewarded early speed.

Withers Stakes (G3)

Where were we a week ago? The historic narrative has not changed in the time since this 1 1/8-mile points prep was postponed because of cold weather.

Early Voting reversed the recent trend last year, when his gate-to-wire victory was the first in the Withers since it was re-established in 2012 as a winter prep for the Derby. Max Player in 2020 and Risk Taking in 2021 were as far back as sixth before they won going the two turns at Aqueduct.

These were the past-performance lines of recent Withers winners, according to their Equibase charts:

Hit Show and General Banker are closers who might be seen as candidates to return to the old trend for the Withers. The more forward Arctic Arrogance and Jungfrau would tend to repeat the early-speed tactic that proved successful last year.

The last two runnings of the Withers did not produce any Derby horses. Only five of the first 11 winners in its current incarnation made it to the starting gate in Louisville.

As a Derby prep, this race has a small sample. Established in 1874 at Jerome Park, what was long etched into the springtime calendar as the Withers Mile at Belmont Park was run at 1 1/16 miles when it returned to the New York program 11 years ago. It was extended to 1 1/8 miles in 2018.

Sam F. Davis (G3)

When Classic Causeway led at every call to win last February, he joined Flameaway in 2018 and Well Defined in 2019 to become third winner in five years to go gate to wire in this 1 1/16-mile race. Even 2021 victor Candy Man Rocket was within a length of the lead all the way around the track until he took the lead at the quarter pole.

Of the possible Sam F. Davis starters Saturday, last-out stakes winners Dubyuhnell in the Remsen (G2), Zydeceaux from the Pasco and Dreaming of Kona via promotion in the Mucho Macho Man fit the front-running or stalker profile. So did Prairie Hawk and Groveland, who finished first and second in an allowance race last out at Tampa Bay Downs, and Classic Car Wash, who led the whole way in a Tapeta allowance last month at Gulfstream Park.

The last 14 horses who made it from this prep to the Derby failed to finish in the top five in Kentucky. Musket Man, who finished third in both races in 2009, was the most recent to hit the board.

These were the Sam F. Davis starters since 2000 who made it to the Kentucky Derby:

Bluegrass Cat had the best placing this century of any Derby horse who won the Sam F. Davis. He finished second at Churchill Downs, 6 1/2 lengths behind Barbaro in 2006.

El Camino Real Derby

Whether they ran at Bay Meadows or Golden Gate Fields, 20 of the last 23 winners of what is now Northern California’s only Derby points prep were as far back as fourth place at some point in the race. Even trainer Bob Baffert, who usually trains his horses to show early speed, earned El Camino Real trophies with off-the-pace horses Azul Coast in 2020 and Blackadder in 2022.

Gilmore, a colt currently in Baffert’s stable, was fourth early in his maiden-breaking win Dec. 10 at Los Alamitos, although he made up ground on the backstretch and stalked the pace until taking the lead in the homestretch.

Even with all those closers finding their way around the 1 1/8 miles to the Berkeley winner’s circle, all but Kilgowan in 2004 were in front or within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead at the stretch call.

Since the Kentucky Derby moved to a points-based qualifying system 10 years ago, only Dance With Fate made it to Louisville from the El Camino Real Derby.

Five years ago the Bay Area race was designated as a win-and-you’re-in qualifier for the Preakness. Rombauer won both in 2021.