HRN Saturday stakes picks: Churchill's G3 Cardinal and more

HorseRacingNation.com
November 17, 2017 09:47am

Each weekend, we reach out to our network of editors, writers and bloggers for their thoughts on the nation's biggest stakes races, with coast-to-coast picks offered Saturday at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs and Del Mar. Good luck!

$150,000 Artie Schiller Stakes (3:47 p.m. ET at Aqueduct)

Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Winner: #5 Blacktype

On the board: #2 Fire Away, #9 Delta Prince

Longshot I like: #3 Hollywood Hideaway

Analysis: His last two races indicate Blacktype is the horse two beat. Fire Away is 2-for-2 on the Aqueduct grass. Delta Prince drops from the Grade 2 level where she caught yielding ground. Hollywood Hideaway comes in off a layoff, but is fast enough to be competitive.

Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)


Winner: #5 Blacktype


On the board: #1 Night Prowler 


Longshot I like: #2 Fire Away


Analysis: The Chad Brown & Christophe Clement runners will get bet down, so I will go for Bill Mott in what’s hopefully a value play. Longshot Fire Away sports a blue-blood pedigree.

Jarrod Horak, winninghorsepicks.com (@jchorak)


Winner: #1 Night Prowler


On the board: #5 Blacktype, #9 Delta Prince


Longshot I like: #2 Fire Away


Analysis: Night Prowler got no pace help vs. rival Blacktype last time but still rallied nicely to finish a length behind. The inside post is 4-for-10 at this trip, and his winning pilot, Castellano, stays put.


The plays: #1 to win, Exacta 1/5-9, Exacta 5-9/1, Trifecta 1-5/1-2-5-9/1-2-5-9, Trifecta 5-9/ALL/1-2


Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@writingcasey)


Winner: #9 Delta Prince


On the board: #1 Night Prowler, #2 Fire Away


Longshot I like: #6 A Lot


Analysis: Delta Prince seems to be the class of the field and the most lightly raced. He has been facing some hefty competition, and this is a nice return race to get back into his winning ways. Night Prowler and Fire Away are also taking a bit of a class drop and will be tough in here assuming they get good trips.


Grade 3, $100,000 Cardinal Handicap (5:24 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs)


*Rain is in the forecast Saturday in Louisville. The following selections were made pre-changes.

Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman


Winner: #7 Beauly

On the board: #12 Dona Bruja, #9 Linda

Longshot I like: #1 Lovely Loyree

Analysis: Beauly ran well in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. While Dona Bruja is by far the best horse in race, she drew a tough post. Linda is 0 for 6 this year but likes this turf course. Lovely Loyree has speed that should give her a tactical advantage from the inside.

Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000) 


Winner: #9 Linda


On the board: #7 Beauly


Longshot I like: #4 La Piba


Analysis: Should be enough pace for the closing kick of my top three to get there, Beauly underneath in 3-4th. La Piba, making her third start for Brad Cox and coming in off an effort on yielding turf at Kentucky Downs could surprise.


Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)


Winner: #12 Dona Bruja


On the board: #10 Fair Point, #9 Linda


Longshot I like: #5 Weep No More


Analysis: The Argentine-bred Dona Bruja has only finished off the board once (fourth) in 14 career starts.


Jarrod Horak, winninghorsepicks.com (@jchorak)


Winner: #11 Res Ipsa


On the board: #2 Tricky Escape, #9 Linda


Longshot I like: #4 La Piba


Analysis: Res Ipsa is the “now” filly exiting back-to-back allowance turf route wins (Oct. 13 runner-up was also a next-out winner) under Leparoux. She owns a pair of local turf wins as well and the tactical type has won on good and firm turf. Dona Bruja is the class of the field, and she has only finished out of the exacta once in fourteen starts. She is stuck in the outside post and might scratch if the ground is too soft (100% chance of rain).  


The plays: #11 to win, Exacta 11/2-9-12, Exacta 2-9-12/11, Trifecta 2-11/ALL/4-9

Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@writingcasey)


Winner: #12 Dona Bruja (ARG)


On the board: #9 Linda, #1 Lovely Loyree


Longshot I like: #5 Weep No More


Analysis: Dona Bruja probably won't get a ton of speed to run at here, but she is the class of the field. As for the longshot, this is Weep No More's first try on the turf, and she has consistently been running on top-tier races on the dirt. She may perform with the drop and the change in surface.


$100,000 Desi Arnaz Stakes (5:30 p.m. ET at Del Mar)


Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Winner: #3 Midnight Bisou

On the board: #6 Dream Tree, #2 Ms Bad Behavior

Longshot I like: #1 Steph Being Steph

Analysis: Midnight Bisou should really enjoy the additional ground. Blinkers come off the speedy Dream Tree in hopes she can relax going an extra furlong. Ms Bad Behavior faced a couple of rivals that went on to race well in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fillies. Steph Being Steph could be the beneficiary if the pace totally collapses.

Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)


Winner: #3 Midnight Bisou


On the board: #2 Miss Bad Behavior, #6 Dream Tree


Longshot I like: N/A


Analysis: Midnight Bisou will improve stretching out and overtake Dream Tree this time.

Jarrod Horak, winninghorsepicks.com (@jchorak)


Winner: #3 Midnight Bisou


On the board: #6 Dream Tree, #2 Ms Bad Behavior


Longshot I like: #1 Steph Being Steph


Analysis: Midnight Bisou finished seven lengths clear of the show and galloped out nicely in her debut while finishing a nose behind Dream Tree. Bejarano rides for Spawr, and she should enjoy today's added distance. She also has my 2-year-old maiden in a stakes race angle going for her.


The plays: #3 to win, Quinella 3/1-2-6, Trifecta 2-3-6/2-3-6/1  


Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@writingcasey)


Winner: #2 Ms Bad Behavior


On the board: #1 Steph Being Steph, #6 Dream Tree


Longshot I like: #4 Smiling Tigress


Analysis: In three lifetime starts, Ms Bad Behavior has never been worse than third, and her pedigree suggests that she will improve. Steph Being Steph has performed well in her three starts, and Dream Tree is a Bob Baffert filly who won first out in a close call. Smiling Tigress is the most experienced filly in the field.

Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power (@imtbreds)


Winner: #3 Midnight Bisou


On the board: #6 Dream Tree, #1 Steph Being Steph


Longshot I like: #2 Ms Bad Behavior

Analysis: Flying at the end of her six-furlong debut, Midnight Bisou missed the photo to Dream Tree by a nose and posted a sharp final breeze. She has the best late speed fractions in the field. Spawr is 3 for 12 with last out maiden winners moving up. Baffert takes blinkers off Dream Tree, perhaps to get her to relax early. Steph Being Steph was flying at the end of the Anoakia Stakes and could take another step forward. Ms Bad Behavior raced twice at this distance has improving speed figures, but trainer Baltas is only 8% with last out maidens moving up.

 

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