Seven evenly matched 3-year-old fillies will take to the turf at Churchill Downs on Saturday for the 1 1/16-miles Mrs. Revere Stakes (G2).
The top three finishers from Keeneland's Valley View Stakes (G3) -- Stunning Sky, Princess Grace and How Ironic -- were separated by only one length and return for a rematch here. They will be joined by Hendy Woods, who will appreciate class relief after facing the likes of Sharing and Harvey's Lil Goil in her last two races.
To help sort out this turf scramble, we took a closer look at free past performances from our friends at Brisnet.
It should come as no surprise that Valley View Stakes winner and morning line favorite Stunning Sky leads the way in Brisnet's Prime Power Ratings. Hendy Woods, co-second choice on the morning line is a close second in Prime Power.
What is surprising is the large gap between Hendy Woods and fellow co-second choice Princess Grace. Despite only losing to Stunning Sky by a 1/2 length in the Valley View, Brisnet does not give Princess Grace much of a chance to turn the tables. When looking closer, this makes sense. Princess Grace sat a great trip in the Valley View, took the lead, was pulling away and still got run down by a wide-running Stunning Sky. If she could not hold that day, there is little reason to believe she will on Saturday.
It often is good to play a horse that does not come out of a common race with a bunched finish. Hendy Woods, who exits an off-the-board finish in the Queen Elizabeth (G1), offers that alternative. She is the class of the field and her speed figures put her right on par with Stunning Sky. One important factor to consider, however, is her love for one mile. Her three wins and one second have come at the distance; while her two poor races have come at 1 1/8 miles. Can she handle the 1 1/16 mile distance?
With Princess Grace and Hendy Woods appearing a bit vulnerable underneath Stunning Sky, it is prudent to search for a horse that will be closing late at a nice price to round out exotic wagering. By looking at Brisnet's Late Pace Last Race Figures, we see that Pass the Plate fits the bill.
Pass the Plate's last figure came on the dirt, but that race proved she is still is good form. Her prior race, a seventh place finish behind Hendy Woods, can potentially be forgiven as it came on a yielding turf course. By tossing that race, you are left with strong form lines behind the same leaders of the division that Hendy Woods lost to, Sharing and Harvey's Lil Goil. The difference is Pass the Plate is 2 for 2 at the distance of 1 1/16 miles.
Stunning Sky is the horse to beat, but do not be surprised if Pass the Plate outruns her odds and is in the mix at the finish.
Determine who you like by taking a closer look at the Mrs. Revere PPs below, with the option to go full screen in the lower right corner of the window. Visit our free past performances page to view free stakes PPs from Churchill and Aqueduct.
2020 Mrs Revere PPs