Fayette Stakes 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

October 23, 2019 01:36pm
Fayette Stakes 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race
Photo: Bee Buck Photography

The Grade 2, $200,000 Fayette Stakes for 3-year-olds and up, which will be run at a mile and eighth, is set for Saturday as the final stakes race of Keeneland's fall meet.

The Fayette attracted a field of 10 and includes some familiar names from the Older Male division as well as the Triple Crown series, along with an intriguing outsider who is riding a five-race winning streak.

With the Fayette slated as Race 9 with post time scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET, morning line odds here are projected by the Horse Racing Nation staff. 

1)
The Great Day (ARG) [ML 10-1 – Harlan’s Holiday – A. Delacour/C. Lanerie – 15: 5-6-1 - $338, 574] He came to the American barn of Arnaud Delacour from Argentina this year. In the U.S., he has raced in three graded stakes, two on the turf and the most recent on the synthetic course at Woodbine. He won that Woodbine race on the front end and now moves to the dirt at Keeneland. He does show dirt victories in Argentina, but those stakes races are hard to compare to American racing. Live longshot.

2)
Mr Freeze [ML 3-1 – To Honor and Serve – D. Romans/R. Albarado – 8: 4-2-0 - $542,710] In his third start of this year for trainer Dale Romans, Mr Freeze stepped up and beat older horses for the first time in the Ack Ack (G3) at Churchill Downs. As a late-developing 3-year-old, he made his career debut in April and won three of his first four starts, including the West Virginia Derby (G3). Romans thinks highly of this one having also considered him for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Win contender.

3)
Tom’s d’Etat [ML 5-2 – Smart Strike – A. Stall Jr./J. Rosario – 14: 7-2-1 - $766,892] He was last seen running fourth, beaten by less than two lengths, as a 2-1 shot in Saratoga's Woodward (G1). The lightly raced 6-year-old has two wins in listed stakes races, but he has yet to break through in graded company. He seems to a have a class edge in this field but is a bit unpredictable. Vulnerable favorite.

4)
Everfast [ML 20-1 – Take Charge Indy – D. Romans/M. Mena – 14: 1-2-1 - $549,805] This Romans runner has a reputation as the longshot of this year’s 3-year-old class. Competing in a long list of Grade 1 and 2 races, he did record those two place finishes in the Preakness and the Holy Bull (G2). The bottom line is that he has only a maiden victory to his credit. He will now try older horses for the first time after last being seen running at the back of the 12-horse Travers (G1) field. Once again, he'll go at a high price. Pretender.

5)
Mocito Rojo [ML 7-2 – Mutadda – W. Davis/F. Rodriguez – 25: 17-3-1 - $797,000] Based at Delta Downs in Louisiana, this 5-year-old has a gaudy career record that includes five consecutive stakes victories with two Grade 3 scores. He came to Kentucky and took down the Lukas Classic (G3) by a neck at odds of almost 9-1. That win has to earn him respect and likely a much shorter price on the board. This guy has run well at six different tracks recently. The top choice.

6)
Tenfold [ML 15-1 – Curlin – S. Asmussen/R. Santana Jr. – 13: 4-0-1 - $964,7390] We remember Tenfold chasing Justify in the 2018 Triple Crown series, but that year he did win the Jim Dandy (G2) and this season as a 4-year-old he won the Pimlico Special (G3). His recent form has not been good. The Steve Asmussen runner sandwiched a fourth in the Pacific Classic (G1) between two poor performances in the Stephen Foster (G2) and most recently he was eighth in the Lukas Classic. Toss.

7)
Core Beliefs [ML 12-1 – Quality Road – P. Eurton/J. Talamo – 11: 3-1-3 - $885,011] Based on the west coast, Core Beliefs has been off since July when he ran fourth in the San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar behind three horses that are heading to the Breeders’ Cup. He was the winner of the New Orleans Handicap (G2) last March. He fits well with this group of horses, but the layoff from two tough races is a concern. Use underneath.

8)
Bal Harbour [ML 6-1 – First Samurai – T. Pletcher/T. Gaffalione – 17: 5-5-2 - $528,755] The 4-year-old has hit the board in four consecutive graded stakes races, including the Woodward last time when he had the lead at the top of the stretch and finished a half-length behind the winner, Preservationist. He won an allowance race in his only start at Keeneland last fall after being gelded. He has been training at Saratoga since the summer. Board hitter.

9)
Own Agenda [ML 50-1 – First Defence – C. DeVaux/B. Hernandez Jr. – 12: 2-3-2 - $161,313] Former Chad Brown assistant Cherie DeVaux sends Own Agenda into a graded stakes race for the first time. His last victory came a year ago in a first-level allowance race at Churchill Downs. Since then, he has tried five times to win the next level allowance and hit the board three times. Toss.

10)
Big Dollar Bill [ML 15-1 – Midnight Lute – I. Wilkes/C. Landeros – 19: 4-5-4 - $303,611] The Ian Wilkes trainee sports a perfect 3-for-3 record at Keeneland, which includes two allowance races and his maiden score. He comes to this spot with two lackluster performances in 2019, however, and will need to make a significant improvement to be a contender at the Grade 2 level. Toss.

Summary
: In a field that is filled with horses with inconsistent form, Mocito Rojo and his five-race winning streak has past performances that standout. With two Grade 3 wins in that streak, especially the victory in the Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs, he is a likely winner in the Fayette, especially with the chance that Tom’s d’Etat will be the favorite.

Tom’s d’Etat is a horse who I have picked to win in the past, but I feel that as the likely favorite, he is a horse to try and beat. When you look at the names of horses who he has faced this year -- McKinzie, Seeking the Soul, Quip, and Perservationist -- it is clear why he will take money. However, in the Woodward, Tom’s d’Etat was beaten by the consistent Bal Harbour.

My play will be an exacta key box of Mocito Rojo with Bal Harbour, Mr Freeze, and Tom’s d’ Etat.

 

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