Expert picks: Raven Run Stakes predictions, longshots

October 19, 2018 03:15pm
A number of 3-year-old fillies not quite up to the task of a Breeders' Cup start will take on Saturday's Grade 2, $250,000 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland, where plenty of back class has assembled to take on the seven-furlong feature.

At the top of the list is tepid 3-1 morning line favorite Moonshine Memories, a Grade 1 winner making her first start in Kentucky. Also among contenders in an overflow field are Chad Brown-trained Alter Moon and Kelly's Humor, who competed in this year's Kentucky Oaks.

Post time in Lexington, Ky., is 5:30 p.m. ET for the ninth of 10 races on the card. Here's how the Horse Racing Nation crew handicapped the Raven Run:

Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)

Winner: #6 Kelly's Humor

On the board: #5 Alter Moon, #9 Moonshine Memories

Longshot I like: #3 Blamed

Analysis: Kelly's Humor has not won a race since the summer of 2017, but I still like her chances here. She has been a model of consistency all year and is coming off a third in the Test (G1) last out. The field is full of speed, and with her off-the-pace style, she will be flying late. Trainer Brad Cox is having a big meet, and her best races have come around one turn. Alter Moon was fourth in the Test and makes her second start for Brown. She has turned in stellar works over the last few weeks. Moonshine Memories comes off a third in the Prioress (G2) and gets Mike Smith back, She has plenty of speed, and her class makes her a player in here. Blamed makes her first start in seven months, but trainer Bill Mott has a 18% strike rate with horses off 90-plus days. She has turned sharp workouts at Saratoga and looks ready to go on Saturday. I will play a 6-5-9-3 superfecta box.

Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Winner: #9 Moonshine Memories

On the board: #6 Kelly's Humor, #5 Alter Moon

Longshot I like: #8 Chauncey

Analysis: Moonshine Memories recovered nicely following a poor start to finish third in the Prioress (G2). She has plenty of talent and attracts Smith. Kelly's Humor should get plenty of pace for her closing style to run at. Alter Moon had two big wins in June and can win here if she returns to that early summer form. Chauncey earned her highest two speed figures with a win and a narrow loss in her only two seven-furlong races.

Jarrod Horak, Pick 6 Blog (@jchorak)

Winner: #5 Alter Moon

On the board: #9 Moonshine Memories, #6 Kelly's Humor

Longshot I like: #8 Chauncey

Analysis: Alter Moon owns two wins at this specialty distance and might improve in her second start for Brown. Jose Ortiz rides the fresh filly. Moonshine Memories exits a troubled third in the Prioress. She is a quality sprinter, and Smith was aboard for her debut win last year. Kelly's Humor likes hitting the board, and Chauncey handles this distance as she moves to the Steve Asmussen barn. My suggested wagers: #5 to win; exacta 5-8-9/6; trifecta 5-8-9/ALL/6.

Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@casey_laughter)

Winner: #3 Blamed

On the board: #9 Moonshine Memories, #14 Nookta Sound

Longshot I like: #8 Chauncey

Analysis: This is an extremely competitive race. Blamed is on a roll and has the speed and stamina to go gate to wire here if she is not pressured too much by her rivals on the front end, namely Amy's Challenge. A post outside of that rival helps. Moonshine Memories, a star last year, seems to have found a niche sprinting.

Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner (@Capppercorner)

Winner: #1 Amy's Challenge

On the board: #12 Shamrock Rose, #9 Moonshine Memories

Longshot I like: #12 Shamrock Rose

Analysis: This is about as far as my top pick wants to go, but without a ton of other early speed she rates a good chance to go wire to wire. Shamrock Rose looks to do her best work sprinting on dirt, so include on all tickets at a big price for top-notch connections. Moonshine Memories also prefers one turn, but will be favored in this wide-open affair.


comments powered by Disqus

Related Pages

Top Stories