Expert picks: Ohio Derby 2019 predictions and best bets

June 21, 2019 02:14pm

The Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby (G3) lost some of its luster after Global Campaign was forced to scratch due to a quarter crack. The field has been reduced to six, and it looks like a match race on paper between stalker Long Range Toddy and closer Owendale.

Before deciding how to bet Saturday's JACK Thistledown feature, let's analyze the field with post time set for 5:10 p.m. ET. Also check out free Ohio Derby past performances courtesy of Brisnet.

The Favorite

#2 Owendale (9-5): The late runner might get the right setup. He followed up a win in the Lexington Stakes (G3) with an rallying third in the Preakness Stakes. He could easily run past them all as the deserving favorite.  

Value Win Contender

#3 Long Range Toddy (5-2): His last two below-par efforts in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby were both contested in the slop. He was bothered at Churchill last time, and he drew poorly in his last pair. He ran consistently over fast ground before those races, and the stalker figures to get first run from an advantageous post. He might rebound as the likely second betting choice. 

Live Longshot

#1 Math Wizard (8-1): Removes blinkers and should get pace to chase. He was an OK fourth in the Wood Memorial (G2), and could easily be along for a share. Edgard Zayas got to know him May 4, and he should save all of the ground Saturday.

Remaining Entrants

#4 Global Campaign (3-1): Nagging foot problems will keep him out of this one. He figures to show up next month in either the Dwyer (G3) or Indiana Derby (G3)

#5 Going for Gold (20-1): The 0-for-4 maiden puts blinkers back on and looms a pace factor at most. He looks overmatched.  

#6 Bethlehem Road (6-1): Easily won all three starts at Parx Racing in front-running fashion. He should be tested throughout in this spot. 

#7 Dare Day (15-1): Romped in both dirt sprints against Ohio-bred company. He is one of three front runners signed on. 

Suggested Wagers

Exacta 2-3/1

Trifecta Key 3/1-2

Trifecta 2-3/ALL/1


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