Expert picks: Indiana Derby 2019 long shots, predictions

July 12, 2019 05:14pm

Saturday’s Grade 3, $500,000 Indiana Derby appears to go through Mr. Money, the 6-5 morning line favorite who enters off back-to-back open-lengths victories at Churchill Downs. But is the outside post position in a field of 11 too much to overcome?

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Ahead of post time for the ninth of 10 races at Indiana Grand, set for 10:02 p.m. ET, here’s how Horse Racing Nation’s contributors are siding with in this weekend’s feature for the 3-year-old division.


Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace

Winner: #11 Mr. Money

On the board: #10 Math Wizard, #3 Gray Magician

Longshot I like: #8 Chess Chief

Analysis: Mr. Money owns faster figures than every horse in this group except for Math Wizard. But to give Mr. Money the clear edge, TimeformUS Pace Projector puts him on the lead through a slow pace uncontested. For those not turned off by Mr. Money's low value and still want to play vertically, using Gray Magician underneath instead of Math Wizard will make the exacta more interesting. 


Jarrod Horak, Pick 6 blog

Winner: #10 Math Wizard

On the board: #11 Mr. Money, #6 Alwaysmining

Longshot I like: #9 Long Range Toddy

Analysis: #10 MATH WIZARD (9-2) was clearly second best in the Ohio Derby (G3), and he relaxed nicely without blinkers that day. The former claimer is versatile and on the upswing, and he might be sitting on a stakes win at this shorter trip. #11 Mr. Money (6-5) exits back-to-back stakes romps at Churchill. Actually, all three of his wins were under the Twin Spires, and he has not done much away from that venue. He is going to have to work out a trip from the outside post.

#6 Alwaysmining (8-1) was outstanding at Laurel in the 3-year-old stakes ranks. He controlled the pace multiple times in short fields at that venue, but did not have that kind of trip in his last two losses. His best shot is to get out there and try to steal it. #9 Long Range Toddy (12-1) wants a fast track, and this shorter distance helps. He projects an outside stalking trip and can move forward in his second start after a layoff. Wagers: #10 to win, Exacta Box 10-11, Trifecta 10/6-11/6-9-11, Trifecta 6-11/10/6-9-11, Trifecta 6-11/6-9-11/10


Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Winner: #10 Math Wizard

On the board: #9 Long Range Toddy, #11 Mr. Money

Longshot I like: #9 Long Range Toddy

Analysis: Math Wizard has raced extremely well when moved up the class ladder after being claimed for 25k in January. His best performance came last time out in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby where he bid, then hung, losing by half-length. That effort could be a sign he’s approaching peaking form.

Long Range Toddy needed his last outing after a troubled KY Derby finish in the slop seven weeks prior. Look for him to rebound. Mr. Money boasts terrific form/fastest speed figures, but he’ll have to prove he can find the winner’s circle away from Churchill Downs, the site of his three lifetime victories. 


Mark Midland, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: #11 Mr. Money

On the board: #10 Math Wizard

Longshots I like: #5 Frolic More, #8 Chess Chief

Analysis: Let's try not to overthink things here.  #11 Mr. Money (6-5) and #10 Math Wizard (9-2) are improving three-year-olds going in the right direction, and this is an audition for much bigger things.  Mr. Money has a clear pace advantage from the outside, so look for him to go all the way here.  And Math Wizard can close past the rest of the challengers, maybe even making it look a little close at the end.  That's a chalk exacta, but the Dallas Stewart longshots have a decent shot to run third here at a nice price - the #5 Frolic More is 15-1 and #8 Chess Chief is 12-1.  They have a great shot to outrun the other name horses in here that ran in the Triple Crown - #3 Gray Magician (8-1), #6 Alwaysmining (8-1) and #9 Long Range Toddy (12-1).


A fun bet here is a $5 Trifecta wheel 11 with 10 with 5-8.  That only costs $10 but could pay a little something.  And then sit back and watch the rapidly improving Mr. Money and Math Wizard.  With a strong run, Mr. Money becomes one of the top Travers contenders (who will certainly be a price in that race), and Math Wizard will be ready for bigger things too.  So you can potentially make some money down the road by watching these two with a watchful eye Saturday night. 


2019 Indiana Derby (G3)

 

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