Funny how the world does not see eye to eye with America. Or vice-versa.
Whether it is the fixed-odds market in Las Vegas or last month’s nationwide pari-mutuels via Churchill Downs, undefeated Essential Quality is the clear favorite among bettors to win the Kentucky Derby.
Even before his thrilling victory Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), Essential Quality was best-priced at 4-1. With his neck victory at Keeneland over Highly Motivated, his record moved to 5-for-5, and his odds were cut to 7-2 at William Hill Nevada and 3-1 at Circa Sports.
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That is not quite how they see it at foreign books. A 3-for-3 record and trainer Bob Baffert’s six Derby victories doubtlessly contributed to Concert Tour being the joint favorite globally with Essential Quality. They each are best-priced at 7-2 at European bookmakers surveyed by Oddschecker.com. At the off-shore site Bovada, they are each 4-1 (plus-425).
Whether the split opinion will make it past next weekend will be determined by Concert Tour’s performance in his final prep, Saturday’s Arkansas Derby (G1).
Another undefeated colt, Rock Your World, is the consensus third choice worldwide. After he graduated from turf to dirt to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he shortened from 35-1 to best odds of 8-1 at both Circa and William Hill. Rock Your World is 7-1 in foreign markets.
Concert Tour is the only horse among Nevada’s top eight choices who has not run his last prep. The rest of the top five were winners last time out. They are followed immediately by three horses that hit the board in their final preps.
7-2 Essential Quality
6-1 Concert Tour
8-1 Rock Your World
9-1 Known Agenda
12-1 Hot Rod Charlie
14-1 Greatest Honour
15-1 Highly Motivated
15-1 Medina Spirit
More than half of the horses that were on the boards last week in Las Vegas are not there anymore. One, however, came from out of nowhere to be added during the weekend.
Bourbonic (50-1 Circa Sports, 100-1 William Hill). Theoretically, the 72-1 winner of the Wood Memorial is seen at Circa as being more likely to win the Derby than he was to win his stakes debut Saturday at Aqueduct. With his deep close from worst to first, the Calumet Farm homebred by Bernardini is 3-for-3 going at least a mile on fast main tracks. He gives trainer Todd Pletcher four Derby candidates. Florida Derby (G1) winner Known Agenda, Wood runner-up Dynamic One and maybe Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) third-place finisher Sainthood also are in the mix.
While Bourbonic was added, 39 other horses came off the boards in Nevada, leaving 31, shown here with their odds at Circa and William Hill:
Circa WH
50-1 100-1 Bourbonic
50-1 50-1 Caddo River
4-1 6-1 Concert Tour
50-1 125-1 Crowded Trade
200-1 125-1 Dream Shake
30-1 125-1 Dynamic One
3-1 7-2 Essential Quality
50-1 100-1 Get Her Number
9-1 14-1 Greatest Honour
40-1 40-1 Helium
200-1 125-1 Hidden Stash
15-1 15-1 Highly Motivated
12-1 12-1 Hot Rod Charlie
40-1 25-1 Hozier
9-1 7-1 Known Agenda
50-1 90-1 Like the King
30-1 30-1 Mandaloun
15-1 15-1 Medina Spirit
35-1 24-1 Midnight Bourbon
100-1 Nova Rags
70-1 125-1 O Besos
40-1 Panadol
75-1 55-1 Proxy
30-1 Rebel’s Romance
8-1 8-1 Rock Your World
75-1 75-1 Roman Centurian
65-1 100-1 Rombauer
60-1 100-1 Sainthood
24-1 45-1 Soup and Sandwich
300-1 250-1 Super Stock
55-1 100-1 Weyburn
